A new webinar, titled Is it 2008 All Over Again? was recently announced in the most recent issue of The Option Strategist Newsletter. The webinar will analyze the similarities between the 2007-2008 and the 2015-2016 markets and explore strategies to benfit from the possible upcomoing scenerios. The webinar will be on March 7th and registration opens today.
The bulls scored a major victory this week, by engineering a breakout and close above 1950 on Thursday. That completes the "W" bottoming formation. So for now, the near-term outlook is bullish.
Put-call ratios remain bullish. All three of the put-call ratios gave buy signals right at the February 11th bottom -- an excellent bit of timing, especially considering that these are 21-day moving averages.
An abbreviated version of The Option Strategist Newsletter's Is It 2008 All Over Again? artricle was recently published in Proactive Advisor Magazine magazine's. Read the entire article for free by clicking here.
In the past week, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) had a huge rally. Specifically, it rose by more than 1% for three consecutive days – for the first since October, 2011. On the surface, it seems that this is a powerful move that should inspire further gains. But I prefer to see hard facts, and so we ran the data on these types of moves.
The rally has been powerful, but is it just another oversold affair? At this point, we can't really tell. The next resistance area is at 1940-1950, and that's a more crucial point. If $SPX can rise above that level, then it will have formed a "W" on its chart, and that would be quite bullish.
On the other hand, if the 1950 resistance holds, or is quickly retraced, then a much more bearish scenario unfolds.
We have written about the Total put-call ratio many times in the past, so I am not going to get too involved with the explanation of the system, but I did want to show a recent chart and summarize the most recent signals.
The market broke down through support this week. $SPX retraced all the way to 1810, the January intraday lows. The $SPX chart remains negative, with a downtrend in place and heavy overhead resistance.
Conversely, the put-call ratios are becoming bullish. The computer analysis is calling these buy signals, and with the naked eye, one would have to agree.
Market breadth continues to be a problem. Both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals, but they are in oversold territory.
The CBOE is introducing two new variations on volatility products. The first is that there will be weekly $SPX options expiring on Wednesdays (“Wednesday weeklys” is what the CBOE is calling them). Recall that $SPX options are the foundation for the $VIX calculation. $VIX futures and options expire on Wednesdays, and now that there are weekly $VIX futures and options, these Wednesday $VIX expirations extend out several weeks.
The current year started off in a very similar manner to 2008, with the market dropping sharply through the Martin Luther King holiday. The year 2008 surely conjures up some unpleasant memories for most investors and traders (unless you happened to be short at the time – or long volatility calls, as this newsletter was). In this article, we’ll look at similarities in price action as well as the Volatility Index ($VIX) between 2008 and 2016.