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Market Commentary

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market, as measured by $SPX, has traded in a very narrow range since early December (with one very brief excursion below the range in late December). That range is essentially 2250 to 2280, an amazingly small range for a 5-week period of time. As a result, realized volatility has declined to very low levels.

Looking at the more traditional support levels, the first is at 2233 (the late-December lows), with support at 2210 and 2190 below that. As long as $SPX remains above that 2233 support level, we cannot turn bearish, despite what the other indicators might be saying.

Equity-only put-call ratios are telling a different...

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