Blogs

Refinements on Breadth Divergence

By Lawrence G. McMillan

In the April 30th Hotline, we noted that “stocks only” cumulative breadth did make new all-time highs twice recently.  Those two dates were April 15th and April 23rd.  It has not made another new all-time high since then, although it is only about 1,700 issues below its high right now – so another strong upside day today could produce another new all-time high for cumulative breadth.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/15/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market has continued to frustrate both bulls and bears by remaining within a trading range for quite some time. However, today, $SPX closed at a new all-time high and thus is on the verge of an upside breakout. While this produced much glee on CNBC, there could be problems once again if this breakout is not confirmed.

The simplest confirmation would be another $SPX close at new all-time highs, and this time above the all-time intraday high at 2125.92.

Free Option Trading Seminar: Exploring Calendar Spreads - It s About Time!

Please join Stan Freifeld, Director of Corporate Services and option mentor at McMillan Analysis Corporation for this complimentary webinar event. The calendar spread is a versatile low-risk trading strategy that can be used in many ways to generate consistent profits. In his presentation, Stan Freifeld, will illustrate several of the nuances of the strategy. Topics will include volatility considerations, the Greeks, how to use the jelly roll, and the implications of using LEAPS as part of the strategy.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/8/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals. But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.

So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals.

Free Option Webinar : Early Exercise – Strengthen Your Position!

Please join Stan Freifeld, Director of Corporate Services and option mentor at McMillan Analysis Corporation for this complimentary webinar event. Exchange traded options that are traded in the U.S. are classified as either American style or European style. The latter type can only be exercised at expiration while American style options can be exercised at any time. Consequently, writers of these options can be assigned at any time.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/1/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move. As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold.

Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals. Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals.

The Big (Volatility) Short

By Lawrence G. McMillan

One of the most successful investment strategies practiced by hedge funds (and other sophisticated investors) in the last ten years has been the “volatility short” trade.  It is rarely mentioned on TV or in the media, but that is not too surprising.  They would rather promote things such as the “Japan carry trade,” which wasn’t necessarily a profitable strategy at all unless a great deal of risk was taken.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/24/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances.

In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way.

Option Workbench 4.1 Released

We are pleased to announce the release of Option Workbench 4.1. This release contains some exciting new data that will help you to create more flexible filters. Using the new volume and Put/Call Ratio fields in the Option Profiles will assist you in finding even better trading opportunities.

Other new features include:

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market. $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside. There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day.

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