There is only going to be one issue published in May – on the 4th Thursday, May 22nd. We are planning for that to be a “double issue.” The reason for this change in the publication schedule is an extensive travel schedule from April 30th through May 15th, which will not allow time for publication of a formal issue. The weekly Hotline updates will continue throughout this time, without interruption.
Recently, it came to light that some traders follow the 90-day $VIX (Symbol: $VXV) because when the “regular” $VIX exceeds the 90-day $VIX, worthy market signals are generated. Recently (Volume 23, No. 4), we discussed what happens when the Short-Term Volatility Index ($VXST) crosses above $VIX. There are some similarities in these two cases.
The stock market is once again nearing all-time highs, although it has not broken out (yet). If $SPX can't punch on through to new highs, then it will remain within the widened trading range. At this point, most of the technical indicators are bullish, so we would expect at least an attempt to challenge the highs.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals for over a month now. That is beginning to change, as the ratios are starting to roll over.
In this one hour tutorial, Option Workbench creator Craig Hilsenrath demonstrates not only how to use the premade watch lists, formulas and filters to scan for trading candidates but also shows you how to create your own with ease. See the video below or click here.
Join Craig Hilsenrath at the eMoneyShow as he previews the new capabilities of the upcoming 4.0 release of the powerful Option Workbench. Get comfortable with the new look of the software, discover the new earnings data tied into the expected value concept, and learn how to execute and manage trades right in Option Workbench. Register at the eMoneyshow today.
As subscribers know, the CBOE created the Short-Term Volatility Index ($VXST) earlier this year. It is a 9-day average volatility as opposed to a 30-day average volatility, which is what $VIX is. Moreover, $VXST futures started trading about two months ago, on February 13th.
The stock market abruptly ended its decline of a week ago and rallied all week. Wednesday's strongly higher opening turned into an overall bullish day, and as a result a number of indicators rolled over to buy signals or generated new buy signals as well.
We are back on a normal publishing schedule for the next two issues. However, due to travel commitments in May, there will only be one issue of The Option Strategist that month – to be published on May 22nd. There is some precedent for this in the past, and we will attempt to publish a “double issue” at that time. As always, the weekly Hotline updates will continue without interruption.
Recently, the difference between the two breadth oscillators that we follow moved to a rare, extreme differential. Buy signals were generated shortly after that. We have addressed this topic before (most thoroughly in Volume 21, No. 14). That issue was in July 2012. There weren’t any of these signals between that date and February, 2014. Now there have been two more signals.
The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place. But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012. We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook is now turning bearish.