October: Here We Go Again?

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Not every October is a bearish market (at least for a while), but many of them are.  Last year, there was an 80-point decline in $SPX from late September into the early part of October; and in 2012, there was a 120-point decline.  In 2011, there was plenty of bearish action, but it occurred in August and September, with the actual lows being made on October 1st.  In 2010, the market rallied through October.  

Stan’s Option Challenge: Question #11 (Free Option Strategist Newsletter: Volume 03 Download)

We all know that trading options is exciting, highly competitive, and can be very profitable. The key to long term and consistent profits in option trading is options education. The McMillan Mentoring Program, which is run by former Market Maker, white badge AMEX Floor Official, professional trader, and longtime MENSA member Stan Freifeld, can take your trading to the next level.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/3/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has broken down badly this week.  The decline accelerated after breaking through minor support at 1965.  The $SPX chart is now in a downtrend.

One more thing re the $SPX chart: It has been 681 trading days since $SPX last touched the 200-day moving average (on November 20, 2012). This is a record just waiting to be broken.  Perhaps this will be the time.

The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 23, No. 18 Preview

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Volatility has begun to increase, and that has important ramifications for the stock market, as well as certain sectors.  The feature article examines markets where volatility is trending higher (bearish) and where spike peak buy signals might eventually set up.  

Volatility Increases, Finally

By Lawrence G. McMillan

One of the strongest underpinnings of this bull market has been low volatility and – to an even greater extent – a very positive construct in the $VIX futures. Quietly, $VIX has been increasing since late August, and now it’s becoming much “noisier.” 

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/26/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX broke below the bottom of the previous trading range. That is, $SPX closed well below the previous support in the 1978-1985 area. If it can close below 1978 again today, that would confirm the downside breakout and would generate a confirmed sell signal for the intermediate-term.

Equity-only put-call ratios have been on sell signals for nearly two weeks. As long as these ratios are trending higher, that is bearish for the broad market.

Enhanced $VIX Methodology: The New VIX Calculation

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Beginning on October 6th, there will be a change to the way that $VIX is calculated.  In this article, we’ll details the new methodology and make some analytical comments about how this might affect $VIX.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/19/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Early this week, $SPX closed at a new relative low, and many of the indicators appeared to be turning bearish (for example, $VIX closed above 14).  However, prices have rallied since then, and $SPX made a marginal new all-time high today -- both intraday and closing.  Is this probe upwards more effective than the probe downwards was a few days ago?  It's hard to say, but a further close at new highs would solidify an upside breakout.

McMillan Rings the NYSE Bell (video)

Larry McMillan recently had the honor of ringing the NYSE closing bell with the MoneyShow team after his presentation at the All-Stars of Option Trading seminar on Volatility Trading. See the video and picture of this historic event below.


The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 23, No. 16 Preview

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Our publication schedule is back to normal now, after having altered it slightly in August.

Since the publication date is September 11th, we are including a brief special remembrance, in honor of the victims of the terrorist attacks on that day (both in 2001 and on that day in 2012, in Benghazi).

Trading or investing whether on margin or otherwise carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all persons. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade or invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and ability to tolerate risk. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more than your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and investing, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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