ryanbrennan's blog

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Bulls have been totally dominant again, over the past week (and really since last November). The gap upside breakout over the minor downtrend line (blue line in Figure 1), on July 12th, was once again the beginning of a strong upward move. This was similar to the previous upside breakout gap over a downtrend line, in late April. The $SPX chart is thus strongly bullish and will remain that way until support at 2400 is broken.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We wrote about “years ending in 7” in the February 3, 2017, issue.  The data in Figure 5 is the same graph that was published at that time.  It includes data for the Dow Jones 30 Industrials, going back to its inception in 1897.  This  graph merely shows the average data points for all of those years.  

By Lawrence G. McMillan

First and foremost, the most bullish of our indicators is the $SPX chart itself (although some of our other indicators seem to be grudgingly improving as well). The 2400 area has been rock-solid support and until that is broken the $SPX chart will remain bullish.

Equity-only put-call ratios are technically on sell signals, according to the computer analysis programs. However, the weighted ratio (Figure 3) has curled over, so its sell signal is weakening.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This stock market has been able to avoid a meaningful correction for quite some time. But now $SPX has closed below support at 2420, and the failed upside breakout of mid-June is looking like a big negative item on its chart, as well. Of course, several times in the recent past, it seemed as if $SPX were about to succumb and it didn't. Can $SPX pull this escape act off once again? If it can hold support at 2400, it will.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A real battle has developed around the 2420-2440 area of $SPX. That has been the trading range for the entire month of June, but recently there have been some violent moves within the range, including some failed attempts to break out of it. As a result, this is setting up a more important breakout, once $SPX can find its way to clearly break out of the range.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This past Monday, $SPX broke out to new all-time highs, smashing through the resistance area at 2440 in a strong manner. Then, just as abruptly, stocks have fallen since then, declining back into the previous 2415 2440 trading range. Both moves would ordinarily portend bigger moves, but in fact both were duds.