I thought it might be interesting to see how previous $VXO/$VIXMO sell signals have played out. We have written plenty about this particular signal, which occurs very rarely – only when $VIX is near the 10 area, which is had been for a while now. The actual signal is this:
when $VXO closes below 10 and $VIXMO closes below 10.5,
that is a short-term sell signal for the stock market.
Once the signal is given, $SPX usually declines sharply, almost immediately, but the decline is short-lived.
It seems that no matter how strongly the market seems to sell off early in the day, it recovers almost all of those losses by the end of the day. As a result, the $SPX chart remains bullish. Subscribers know that we place a great deal of importance on the $SPX chart's trend, and as long as $SPX holds above support, the outlook for the overall market remains intermediate-term bullish.
A week ago, on Thursday, $SPX had broken out strongly to a new all-time high. It followed up with a modestly positive day the next day. On both days, "stocks only" cumulative breadth made new all-time highs as well, confirming the breakout.
The market has roared to new all-time highs. This brute force market strength belies sell signals and a certain amount of general negativity in many of the other indicators. But it doesn't really seem to matter, as $SPX remains the strongest and, by definition, the most important indicator.
For the record, there is support at 2400 (this week's lows) and roughly 2350 (the lows of the big down day two weeks ago). An upside target of 2480 is in play, from the width of the previous trading range.
We have repeatedly stated over the years that the S&P 500 index ($SPX) itself is the most important indicator, because even if all the other indicators are saying one thing, but $SPX is not confirming, then $SPX is right.
At the current time, $SPX is breaking out in a bullish manner, but the other indicators -- for the most part -- are not in agreement. Can $SPX carry the weight all by itself? Yes, because anything is possible, but that's not the ideal situation.
Reference was made in Friday's Weekly Commentary to the fact that the weighted put-call ratio is at its lowest levels since November 2014. The long-term weighted put-call ratio chart – dating back to 1998 – is shown in Figure 5. In the 2002 bear market, the readings were astronomical, but since then, the ratio has ranged roughly from 50 to 130, except for some very bearish markets. The lows have slowly crept higher over the years, which is understandable, as more people have come to rely on put buying as a routine “insurance policy.”
Stocks finally suffered a breakdown of sorts this week, after some extremely overbought conditions -- particularly in volatility -- had appeared. But the bulls are trying mightily to contain the damage, and they look they're doing it quickly.
At this point, $SPX remains within the trading range that was delineated by the March highs and lows (2322 - 2401). Very little damage has been done to the $SPX chart. It remains in a neutral state.
For some time, we have been waiting to see if $SPX can break out on the upside. A breakout has not occurred, despite marginal new all-time closing highs (by pennies) for $SPX.
In reality, $SPX remains trapped within not one, but two trading ranges. The first range is the larger one -- comprised essentially of the March highs and lows, 2322 to 2401. Within that range, there is an even tighter range at play: 2380 to 2400. Because of these trading ranges, the $SPX chart is neutral.
In a move which some might call a “day late and a dollar short,” there are now going to be some products via which European volatility can be traded in the U.S. markets. There have long been volatility futures on the “European $VIX” – VSTOXX. VSTOXX measures the implied volatility of the European EURO STOXX 50 Index, using the same methodology that $VIX does.
As you certainly recall, after "Frexit," $SPX broke out strongly to the upside gapping up on two consecutive days (something that is quite unusual for a large-cap index). However, since then it has virtually gone nowhere. As $SPX has hunkered down in this tight band, some technical deterioration has appeared.
