ryanbrennan's blog

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Despite the media euphoria over recent rally days, the $SPX chart remains short-term negative because of the downtrend lines (see Figure 1). So far, this is showing no signs of being more than a short-term correction, though. It would take a breakdown through major support at 2400 in order to turn the $SPX chart truly bearish.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

By Lawrence G. McMillan

VXX will be reverse split 1-for-4, before trading begins on Wednesday, August 23rd.   It is a bit ironic that VXX is finally starting to rise so the reverse split might not be necessary, but this was probably in the “works” well before the recent announcement date.  

For existing VXX options, the striking price will remain the same, but the “shares per contract” will drop to 25 from 100.  Those existing VXX options will henceforth have the underlying symbol VXX2.■

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market averages have broken down and broken support (except for the Dow). This is the first time that can be said since this past March. We are looking at a strong possibility of a retest of the 2400 level. If that should fail, it is possible that a much more serious bearish market could develop. But as long as the 2400 support level holds, the $SPX chart will remain bullish.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Certainly the $SPX chart is still bullish at this time, but once again $SPX is trapped in one of those tight ranges -- this time between 2460 and 2480. That range has essentially contained the action for the last twelve trading days. In the last nine months, since the election, those tight ranges have generally been resolved by an upside breakout. But until we have verification of that, it is wise to be prepared for a correction.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart is unabashedly bullish. It continues to make new highs, remaining above the trailing moving averages and holding above support. Thus the intermediate-term outlook is still bullish, per the $SPX chart (our most important indicator).

Equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish (Figures 2 and 3). The standard ratio has developed a little "wiggle" over the past few days, but at this point the computer analysis programs are still grading this chart as being on a buy signal.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Bulls have been totally dominant again, over the past week (and really since last November). The gap upside breakout over the minor downtrend line (blue line in Figure 1), on July 12th, was once again the beginning of a strong upward move. This was similar to the previous upside breakout gap over a downtrend line, in late April. The $SPX chart is thus strongly bullish and will remain that way until support at 2400 is broken.