The major indices ($SPX, $NDX, $DJX, and $RUT) all made new all-time intraday and closing highs this week. $SPX should have support at the previous all-time highs (which were also the December highs) near 3870. Below that, there is obvious support at 3700 (the January lows and the bottom of that brief selloff at the end of January), and then the important support level at 3630 (the December lows). I am still classifying the 3630 level as the most important of these because a) the $SPX chart would take on a negative slant if that level were broken and b) there is an old adage (and adequate proof) that breaking the previous December's lows can be the onset of a bear market.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, February 8th, 2021.
What a difference a week makes. Just one week ago, $SPX had sold off sharply, but then the bulls said "enough." Institutional cash, which is often deployed heavily at the end of January and the beginning of February, came rushing into the market. In just four trading days, $SPX had recovered all of the losses and had closed at a new all- time high. $SPX bottomed out almost right at 3700 on Friday, January 29th, so that is definitely support. There is also support below that, at 3630. That is the one that I consider more important, because a breach of that level would take the market below its December lows usually the sign of an emerging bear market.
Equity-only put-call ratios are exhibiting some unusual behavior: the two ratios are diver ging. The standard ratio (Figure 2) is plunging to new lows and is thus on a buy signal. The weighted ratio is slowly rising and is thus somewhat bearish.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, February 1st, 2021.
Stocks have struggled this week, but $SPX has managed to remain above support. Even though a number of indicators are rolling over to sell signals, there are still some bullish indicators in place.
In the November 15, 2020, issue we had a rather comprehensive discussion of the CBOE’s Equity-only put-call ratio. Both its history over the last 20 years and the comparison of 2020 statistics with those past 20 years were discussed. This is just a brief article to update the figures through the end of the year.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, January 25th, 2021.
It may seem as if the market is slowing down, but if it is, it's only in a relative sense. $SPX made new all-time intraday and closing highs on each of the last two days, and $NDX (QQQ) did the same. The Dow ($DJX; DIA) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are only one day removed from all-time closing highs.
All one really needs to know is that the chart of $SPX (and the others) remains strongly positive. The first support level is at 3725-3750. Below there, the next support area is 3630-3650.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, January 19th, 2021.
The market remains overbought in many areas, and confirmed sell signals are beginning to appear. However, the most important indicator (the chart of $SPX) remains in a positive uptrend. There is support near 3725, more important support at 3630-3650, and then 3550.
