The CBOE has listed mini volatility futures, trading with the base symbol VXM. These are worth $100 per point of movement, as opposed to the $1,000 per point of movement on the “big” volatility futures contract. Everything else is the same between the mini and the full contracts: expiration date, settlement pricing, etc. So far, only the first four months have mini contracts, while there are “big” volatility futures for nine months out. In hedged strategies, these can now be paired with the micro e-mini S&P futures (worth $5 per point of movement). This will allow smaller accounts to take advantage of some of the more sophisticated strategies. Volume in the mini volatility futures has been mostly in the front month, but the markets are tight (5 cents wide) so they are a viable trading tool at this time.
At the current time, realized volatility is dropping, $VIX is dropping more slowly, and $VIX futures are remaining at fairly lofty levels because of the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential Election. So, we decided to take a look back and see if there had been any other times when there was such a large discrepancy between the near-term $VIX futures and historical volatility. It turns out there was only one other time when the premium differential was larger – in late January, 2009. However, it doesn’t seem that there is any market-predicting parallel here.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, August 17th, 2020.
As $SPX has approached the all-time highs, some selling has appeared. This is understandable, as many traders probably figure they are grateful to have gotten "even" and are looking to reduce exposure, considering that the future could be volatile and uncertain. However, our indicators remain bullish, and we expect further upside progress.
The market, as measured by $SPX, moved to new relative highs this week, finally breaking out over resistance at 3280. From there, it quickly moved to 3330, closing the huge gap down that had been left on the chart from when the bear market began on February 24th. Now, it has its sights set on the all-time highs at 3395, which is the last remaining resistance area. After this week's action, a close back below 3200 would be cause for concern.
Every so often, we take a look at cumulative breadth and volume, when they appear to have something to “say.” This could be one of those times, as cumulative volume has already made a new all-time high (in “stocks only” terms) as has cumulative breadth.
First, some definitions and nomenclature:
Cumulative breadth (CB): the running daily total of advances minus declines.
The stock market has remained in a fairly tight range ever since breaking out over resistance at 3185 in mid-July. This has had the effect of reducing realized volatility (more about that later), as well as frustrating both bulls and bears. There is overheard resistance at 3280 (the July highs) and there is support at 3185 and below that, at 3155.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, July 27th, 2020.
Stocks have managed to overcome each resistance level with some effort but have not been able to accelerate to the upside. $SPX has encountered resistance at 3155, 3185, 3235, and now 3280 (or just below). Hence the advance has been -- choose your favorite adjective -- labored, halting, tired, or merely stairstep. Whichever one you choose, none have resulted in a strong breakout. But the $SPX chart will remain bullish until support in the 3100-3130 area is broken.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, July 20th, 2020.
