From early March through mid-April, $SPX was on a tear. Since then, it went mostly moved sideways, while establishing a support area near 4120. Now it's broken out to the upside again. Below 4120, there is support near 4000 (the March highs), but that is an area that was never tested, since $SPX just blew right through the March highs on a double gap move higher in early April. Finally, the support at 3850-3870 is still important, for that is the area from which the current leg of this rally was launched.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, May 10th, 2021.
Whenever the market has an extended bull run, such as it's having now, it begins to put a lot of distance between the current value of $SPX and its 200-day Moving Average. Inevitably, some "analyst" posts the fact that "$SPX is x% above its 200-day Moving Average" and then alleges that disaster is at hand. Usually, a deluge of similar analyses follows. Those types of statements are usually wrong, or at least misleading. Two things that are rarely explored in these articles are: 1) when is disaster going to be at hand, and 2) is percent really the measure we want to use, rather than standard deviations?
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, May 3rd, 2021.
The pace of the market's advance has slowed from the torrid run that it had between March 26th and April 16th, but $SPX is still making new all-time highs almost every day.
$SPX has three major support levels, all noted with horizontal red lines on the chart in Figure 1: 4120 (which is the daily lows of several days during April), 4000 (which was the March high), and 3850-3870 (which is the area from which the current leg of this bull market rally emanated on March 26th.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, April 26th, 2021.
After reaching new all-time highs a week ago, the market has stumbled a bit this week. The overbought conditions are beginning to take a toll, but the overall trend is still bullish at this point.
There is support at this week's lows roughly 4120, with stronger support just below 4000 (the March highs), and the major support at 3850-3870. If 4000 is penetrated that would be a short- term negative, and if 3870 is penetrated that would be a major change of trend.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Wednesday, April 21st, 2021.
This market is still akin to a runaway freight train. The momentum is strong and positive, and there are no confirmed sell signals at this time. This has made the market "overbought" in a general sense, but subscribers know that "overbought does not mean sell." Only confirmed sell signals mean "sell."
