The bears took advantage of a small window before the "Santa Claus rally" begins to drive $SPX down a bit. Once again, support in the 3630 3650 area has held. We are still viewing 3550 as the more important support area, for if that were broken, then the $SPX chart would take on a bearish aura.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline, and thus they remain on buy signals. They are extremely overbought, but that is not a sell signal.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, December 21st, 2020.
The major indices -- $SPX/SPY, $NDX/QQQ, $DJX/DIA, and $RUT/IWM -- are all at new all-time intraday and closing highs. Clearly, this market has momentum.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, December 14th, 2020.
All of the major averages have made new all-time highs this week: $SPX (SPY), $DJX (DIA), $NDX (QQQ), and yes, even $RUT(IWM). In fact, IWM is outperforming the rest at this time, for the first time in a long while.
As we have shown, there is a massive number of overbought put-call charts and just a general level of extreme speculation in the current market. In late 2017 and 2019, conditions were similar and they persisted into February before the market collapsed. The market is rarely so accommodating as to keep repeating itself, so while I definitely feel that a major correction could occur, I would expect our indicators to get ahead of that. But just in case something comes out of the blue, this strategy is designed to generate large gains in a collapsing market, at only a small cost if that does not happen.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, December 7th, 2020.
Over the past three days, $SPX finally managed to break out to new all-time closing and intraday highs. Thus, the $SPX chart is bullish, as there is no classical resistance -- by definition -- when it is at all-time highs.
$SPX has advanced an astonishing 1,500 points, or 68%, from the March lows. No matter how you interpret that, it does not jibe with the economics caused by COVID-19. But TINA and FOMO are formidable proponents of buying stocks, and they have certainly won the day.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, November 30th, 2020.
The stock market came into the Thanksgiving holiday in a very strong fashion -- continuing the strong rally that has taken place throughout November. A move above 3644 would be into new all-time intraday high territory. Once $SPX makes that move, there is no resistance in the traditional sense.
Meanwhile, on the downside, there is support just above 3500. A close below there would be very negative, for it would place $SPX back within the old trading range.
