Stocks have continued to rally from the June lows, with the rally picking up steam over the last three or four weeks. But now it has run into the heavy resistance area of 4070-4170, which was initially established back in the early part of June. A clear breakout over 4170 would be bullish and would likely then call for a challenge of the bear market downtrend line at 4300+.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on July 25, 2022.
Stocks are continuing to rally, and for the first time in a while there is a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, at least in the short term. The major intermediate-term trend of $SPX is still negative (outside blue lines on the chart in Figure 1), but the short term has accomplished some objectives. For example, the gap on the chart at 4017 has been closed.
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The downtrend lines are still in place on the $SPX chart, but the short-term outlook has improved greatly. the rally that began on July 15th seems stronger than most of the oversold rallies that we have seen so far.
But there is stronger overhead resistance above current levels. First, there is the gap, which extends up to 4017. Closing that gap would be a strong positive move. Then above there, the trading range from early June, at 4070 4170 is strong resistance.
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Bears pushed prices lower all week, and the major trend of the $SPX chart is still downward (lower highs and lower lows, as denoted by the blue trend lines on the chart). However, most declines were halted before they got much momentum going. $SPX has found support in the general area of 3730 again, as it did at the end of June. The next support area is 3630 (the year-to-date lows). If that is violated, things could get ugly, with minor support at 3500, and then stronger support at 3200.
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The blue downward trend lines on the $SPX chart (Figure 1) tell us that this is still a bear market (lower highs and lower lows). The halting rally that has taken place since mid-June has been pretty much of a disappointment so far.
There is support at 3740 (last week's lows) and then at 3630 (the year-to-date lows). As for resistance, the previous short-term rally failed at 3945, so that qualifies as resistance.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on June 20, 2022.
