The oversold rally that began in mid-March continued strongly through March 29th. That day, $SPX gapped up over double resistance at 4600, and showed strong internals. But then, in a somewhat diabolical way, $SPX turned south again, showing terrible internals and plunged sharply back below 4600 as the first quarter of 2022 came to a close. If that was a false upside breakout, it was one of the bear market's best tricks.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 28, 2022.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 21, 2022.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 7, 2022.
Stocks continue to struggle. The downtrend of $SPX is quite evident in Figure 1, and as long as that Index is in a downtrend, a "core" bearish position can be maintained. $SPX made a new closing low this week, as it probed down towards 4100 once again. The general area of 4100 4200 still represents near-term support. Below that, the next support area (red horizontal line on chart) is at the highs of about a year ago, just below 4000.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 7, 2022.
The chart of $SPX is bearish, with lower highs and lower lows. That is the most important thing to take away from Figure 1. After spiking sharply lower a week ago, $SPX has engineered another oversold rally. In a bear market, those are often swift but usually die out at or just above the declining 20-day Moving Average. It would take a clear breakout over the resistance at 4600 in order to re-establish a bullish trend for the $SPX chart.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on February 28, 2022.
The media seems to think that everything that is wrong with the market and the economy is due to the military conflict, but that is not the case. $SPX is in a bear market and will continue to be as long as the downtrend exists (see the blue line in Figure 1). However, the action on February 24th exacerbated an already oversold condition, and now another oversold rally seems to be taking place.
