Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 28, 2025.
It really feels like the market is rallying strongly, and perhaps the bottom is in. But the evidence is not clear on that. Even though $SPX has rallied nearly 400 points from Monday's lows, this is still a bearish $SPX chart. First of all, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Second, $SPX has not overcome resistance in the 5500 area. Even if it were to rally above 5500 somewhat (perhaps getting nearer to the now-declining 200-day Moving Average) and then turn back down, that would still leave a pattern of lower highs on the chart albeit with a less steep slope on the downtrend line. In my opinion, only a close above 5800 would remove the negativity from this chart.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 21, 2025.
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Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 31, 2025.
The current rally in $SPX is behaving very much likely a typical oversold rally and not something stronger. $SPX rallied up to its declining 20-day Moving Average, and overshot it slightly. Then it backed off again. That is classic action for an oversold rally. In this particular case, $SPX also ran into its 200-day Moving Average, at the same level. The highs of this week are just below 5800, so that is resistance.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 24, 2025.
The stock market, as measured by $SPX, has tried to rally over the past week, with a couple of strong days to show for it. But resistance at or just above 5700 has proven to be strong, and so the rally has been repelled from that level. Oversold rallies typically reach and slightly exceed their declining 20-day moving averages. In this case, that moving average is at 5760 and falling rapidly. It looks more like the moving average will fall to meet $SPX, rather than $SPX rallying to meet the moving average.
