The broad market continues to inch higher, and has so far remained above the previous downtrend line that connected the February and May highs. The only overhead resistance is the all-time highs at 6150. There are several support levels below, from 5940 down to 5700. Several of them are denoted with horizontal blue lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1.
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The downtrend line connecting the February and May highs was a major impediment on the upside, and now $SPX has overcome that. For the previous three days, $SPX has traded above that downtrend line, probing up towards 6000. But each day's close has seen the Index slip back. Today, a strong reaction to the Unemployment Report, has seen $SPX trade up to new relative highs. If it can hold this level today, above 6000, new highs should be the next stop.
Last weekend, tariffs against Europe were postponed, and the stock market took that as a very favorable sign. When traders returned after the Memorial Day weekend, $SPX gapped higher on what turned out to be a very strong day for the big-cap stocks. The gap from that day extends down to 5830, and it would probably be a positive thing if that were filled. A move below 5700 would be negative. There is resistance at last week's highs near 5970 and also at the all-time highs of 6150.
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$SPX has risen for eight days in a row and is off to a positive start today, which would make it nine. This type of action has been accompanied by buy signals from breadth, equity-only put-call ratios, and MVB -- not to mention short-term buy signals such as "$VIX crossover" and "oscillator differential." Still, as impressive as all that is, the $SPX chart is still bearish because it's still in a potential downtrend.
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