Bears pushed prices lower all week, and the major trend of the $SPX chart is still downward (lower highs and lower lows, as denoted by the blue trend lines on the chart). However, most declines were halted before they got much momentum going. $SPX has found support in the general area of 3730 again, as it did at the end of June. The next support area is 3630 (the year-to-date lows). If that is violated, things could get ugly, with minor support at 3500, and then stronger support at 3200.
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The blue downward trend lines on the $SPX chart (Figure 1) tell us that this is still a bear market (lower highs and lower lows). The halting rally that has taken place since mid-June has been pretty much of a disappointment so far.
There is support at 3740 (last week's lows) and then at 3630 (the year-to-date lows). As for resistance, the previous short-term rally failed at 3945, so that qualifies as resistance.
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The oversold rally that began with a furor in late May appears to have run its course. $SPX traded in a 100-point range for seven days, before finally breaking down yesterday (June 9th). The red box in Figure 1 denotes that tight trading range. It now seems likely that $SPX will test the May lows, in the 3800-3900 range. A violation of that area would then see a new leg of the bear market beginning.
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The trend of $SPX is negative (blue lines on the chart in Figure 1), and just last week saw a new lower low to go along with the repeating pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The trend will be negative until that is reversed.
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