There will be a very slight alteration of our publishing schedule in March. The first issue in March will be published on the normal day, the 2nd Thursday, which is March 13th. But the second issue in March will be published one day early, on Wednesday, March 26th. This is because of the AAPTA Conference in Austin (see page 5), to which I will be traveling on Thursday, March 27th (the usual publishing day).
The broad market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has finally managed to close at a new all-time high. A second day closing above 1850 would solidify the breakout and give it more credence.
Equity-only put-call ratios (Figure 2 and 3) have finally rolled over to buy signals.
Market breadth has been strong all month. As a result, the breadth indicators remain on buy signals, but they are in deeply overbought territory.
In our last issue, we discussed the newest volatility product – the futures that have recently begun trading on the Short-Term Volatility Index ($VXST). One of the things that arose from that discussion was that $VXST “overshoots” $VIX on both the upside and the downside. That is, in periods of high volatility (spike peaks, for example) $VXST rises to higher prices than $VIX does. Conversely, in periods of low volatility, $VXST falls farther than $VIX does.
The stock market rally that began on February 3rd continues to persist, almost daily. The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has only had two down days in that time. Even so, there is some question as to whether it has the strength to overcome what is stubborn resistance at 1850.
The CBOE has launched what may prove to be a very useful product – short-term $VIX futures ($VXST). The feature article discusses their terms and their potential usage. Also, there are comparative charts with $VIX and $VXST. If volume is decent, this should be an excellent product.
A lot has happened in the past three weeks, but $SPX is literally unchanged from where it was at that time. A nearly 100-point round trip has taken place -- down, then up.
A move above 1850, to new highs, would be very bullish for $SPX. Although if it happens right away, it will be without support from many of our indicators. Meanwhile, there is minor support at 1800, and major support at 1740 (the February lows).
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals.
For the Introduction, an explanation of Expected Value, and Expected Value and Option Strategies, and Determining the Probabilities refer to Enhancing Option Portfolio Returns Using Probability and Statistics - Part 1,
The stock market finally halted its straight-down tailspin. A strong rally generated some oversold buy signals which could carry the market back towards its declining 20-day moving average.
The $SPX chart is negative, in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and that is what makes it bearish.
Equity-only put-call ratios remains negative. Thursday's rally did not impede their march upward, and when put-call ratios are rising, that is bearish for stocks.
Are you having fun yet? Volatility has returned, and the market is a daily dose of pain and pleasure, to either the bulls or the bears. There are plenty of cross-currents now, and in reality, volatility hasn't even increased all that much (statistically).
Yesterday saw steady rally for nearly the entire day. That had some ramifications beyond merely an oversold bounce. However, it’s what has happened overnight that has been extremely volatile and interesting. First, just after yesterday’s close, Turkey announced that they were intervening on their currency, and S&P futures rallied 13 points from yesterday’s close.
