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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/18/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market abruptly ended its decline of a week ago and rallied all week. Wednesday's strongly higher opening turned into an overall bullish day, and as a result a number of indicators rolled over to buy signals or generated new buy signals as well.

The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 23, No. 07 Preview

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We are back on a normal publishing schedule for the next two issues.  However, due to travel commitments in May, there will only be one issue of The Option Strategist that month – to be published on May 22nd.  There is some precedent for this in the past, and we will attempt to publish a “double issue” at that time.  As always, the weekly Hotline updates will continue without interruption.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/11/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place.  But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012.  We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook is now turning bearish.

Upward Market Reversal Continues

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The upward market reversal that began on Tuesday when $SPX bottomed near the 1840 area, continued with passion on Wednesday.  The rally was aided by the benign Fed minutes, and now $SPX is 25 points above Tuesday’s lows.  The rally was accompanied by some very strong technicals as well.   It was almost as if the buyers were waiting for the sellers (of Friday and Monday and early Tuesday) to finish before they stepped in with a vengeance. 

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/4/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) made new all-time intraday and closing highs on consecutive days this week.  That, coupled with some new buy signals from breadth makes our intermediate-term outlook bullish.

Countering the bullish case is the fact that the equity-only put- call ratios have stubbornly remained on sell signals, but this might be protective hedging activity.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/27/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has been bouncing around within a trading range for nearly a month now. There is resistance at 1880+ (the all-time highs) and there is support at 1840 (most recently tested a couple of weeks ago). There is validity to the theory that it is being wound up like a coiled spring, and could therefore explode with some force once the range's limits are broken.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/21/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market action in the last 10 days has been a complete whipsaw. Now, the chart of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) shows the index to be in a trading range -- bounded by resistance at 1880+ (the all-time highs) and support at 1840 (last Friday's lows).

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, even though the market has bounced back this week.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/14/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This stock market has been able to ward off even a modest correction since the fall of 2012. However, we are now seeing a chart breakdown accompanied by sell signals from some of our most trusted indicators. If the bears can't make some hay with this environment, I would be surprised.

Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell signals.

Short-Term Sell Signals Have Been Registered

By Lawrence G. McMillan

And so it begins.  Sell signals have been registered, and it is possible that more will follow. $SPX closed off nearly 10 points yesterday, as attempts to rally all afternoon eventually failed, and the index closed near its lows.  S&P futures have traded another 5 points lower overnight.  This activated the “modified Bollinger Band” sell signal.

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