Volatility continues to be elevated both in terms of realized and implied. $SPX dropped sharply early in the week as various support levels gave way on the $SPX chart. Of primary concern was the violation of the 6475-6550 support area. Eventually, $SPX bottomed on Tuesday, with a low near 6330 which was also a minor low last August. There should also be support near 6200 (the lows of last July).
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The major averages continue to decline, and they are in a seriously bearish mode. Moreover, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows persists, so there is a distinct downtrend line that can be drawn (see Figure 1, purple line).
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The downtrend on the $SPX chart is obvious, even to the casual observer. Not only are there now lower highs and lower lows, but the short-term moving averages as well as the "modified Bollinger Bands" are all sloping downwards.
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It certainly took a while, but $SPX has finally closed below its December low of 6720. On average, statistics show a further decline of 10% when that occurs. Sometimes these declines take months, or even a year or more. It doesn't necessarily mean that $SPX is suddenly going to drop 10%. But the target is now $SPX 6050, roughly. Of course, that's an average result.
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The bulls are fiercely defending the 6720 area, which is the lower end of the trading range and is also the December low. The bottom line is that swing traders who are buying the 6700- 6800 area and selling the 6900-7000 area continue to profit, while traders waiting for a momentum breakout are increasingly frustrated.
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