The stock market, as measured by $SPX, has tried to rally over the past week, with a couple of strong days to show for it. But resistance at or just above 5700 has proven to be strong, and so the rally has been repelled from that level. Oversold rallies typically reach and slightly exceed their declining 20-day moving averages. In this case, that moving average is at 5760 and falling rapidly. It looks more like the moving average will fall to meet $SPX, rather than $SPX rallying to meet the moving average.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 17, 2025.
A short-term buy signal was triggered at Friday’s close: the “oscillator differential” buy signal. This occurs when the two breadth oscillators, which had spread far apart in recent weeks, come back within 200 points of each other. Historically, this has been a reliable short-term, one-week buy signal.
The market, as measured by $SPX, continues to fall at a rapid rate. It has broken down below the lower end of the trading range that had existed since last November. It also broke through a support line at 5670 (higher horizontal red line on the $SPX chart in Figure 1). The next support area is likely to be near 5400, which was last September's lows.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 10, 2025.
The speed of the market descent from the highs of February 20th to the lows (so far) of March 6th has been swift. The lower end of the trading range had been between 5770 and 5870, but that has been breached this week. There is a support area at 5670, which dates all the way back to last summer (July). It is the lower horizontal line on the chart in Figure 1.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 3, 2025.
The stock market has quickly retraced the entire trading range after yet another false upside breakout. From there, it has worked its way down the lower end of the range. Yesterday's action closed the gap at 5870 on the $SPX chart (circle in Figure 1). The support levels from 5770 to 5860 are now being tested. There was a false downside breakout back in early January. It would be particularly obnoxious of $SPX if it were to engineer another one of those!
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on February 24, 2025.
