For all of you beginners out there, we've recently posted an Option Basics webinar on the McMillan Youtube channel. The seminar was receorded several years ago and is part of our Home Study Course, but most of the information still is relevant. Watch below:
In what will become a semi-regular occurance, McMillan Analysis Corp. President Larry McMillan recorded a video in which he discusses his current stock market outlook. Larry discusses the current state of our option-oriented indicators which are all currently bullish. Watch below or click here.
The broad market is putting on a rather spectacular bullish performance. $SPX has repeatedly gapped to new all-time highs on at least four separate days since October 28th.
There is general support in the area of the old highs, at 3025- 3030. The next lower support at 2950 is crucial to maintaining the bull market. A close below there would be a game-changer, but it doesn't seem to be a problem at this time.
Stocks broke out to new all-time highs this week, finally getting confirmation of a "bullish" status from the $SPX chart. That goes well with the other indicators, which have all been bullish for some time already.
There should now be support near the previous all-time highs, in the 3025-3030 area. Below, there is important support at 2950. A close below there would be negative.
The rally that began two weeks ago, with an upside gap move on October 11th, continues but almost in slow motion.
We should have some resolution fairly soon as to whether this market is ready for a breakout to new highs or a return to the old trading range.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on the buy signals that were generated a little over a week ago. Neither buy signal arose from a particularly high point on the put-call ratio chart, so they weren't the strongest of signals.
Stocks have generally reacted favorably ever since the oversold "washout" on October 3rd (or maybe you prefer the other one, on October 8th). Those created oversold conditions that have spurred buying, along with somewhat positive news on the China trade front. However, there are a couple of things that keep this chart from being all-out bullish.
McMillan Analysis Corp. president Larry McMillan was recently intereviewd on Chuck Jaffe's Money Life podcast where he explored the current state of our option-oriented indicators and discussed the current market environment.
Listen below or click here:
Violent market movements have followed nearly every piece There are both bearish and bullish signals in place, although the bears are being put to the test today.
The major indices all broke down this week, as the accumulated pressure that had been building up finally was released after a poor economic survey. There is resistance at the old highs (3020-3025) and now at 2940, where the breakdown took place. There is support at 2825, and then at 2720.
Both equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to sell signals. They are now trending higher and, as long as that is the case, these sell signals will remain in place.
..The equity-only put-call ratios have both rolled over to sell signals. As we have pointed out, the standard ratio started moving higher a few days ago, but the weighted ratio just turned upward in the past two days. The computer analysis programs did not confirm sell signals from either ratio until after the close on October 2nd. So, these are “fresh” sell signals. The computer analysis was influenced by the fact that some rather large numbers were coming off the 21-day moving averages of these ratios, but as it turned out even larger numbers came onto the averages, and they rose anyway – eventually setting off these sell signals...
