By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Despite plenty of volatility, the stock market – as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index — has been unable to break out of its rather wide trading range. That might remain the case for the remainder of this year, but it is likely that early 2012 will see a significant move.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This is the time of year when even the media talks about seasonality. Of course, that doesn’t mean they understand what they’re talking about. Why would it be different on this subject than any other?
We have frequently mentioned the positive seasonality that takes place between Thanksgiving and Christmas. It’s unclear exactly why this happens, but it does. In fact, this particular seasonality doesn’t even have a cute name. But it certainly seems to work...
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The broad stock market -- as defined by $SPX -- had a major failure today in that it could not break through the upside resistance at 1265 (the approximate location of the 200-day moving average).
Equity-only put-call ratios are now struggling to remain on buy signals.
Market breadth has continued to be a fairly accurate short-term indicator, and the breadth indicators are technically on buy signals even after very negative breadth today.
$VIX has become rather docile, and seems to be calling for more of a trading range environment.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
While I am a technician, I am the first to admit that not every form of technical analysis yields useful information. In fact, being a mathematician, I really like to know why a particular indicator works – other than “it backtests well.”
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This week's rally has improved the status of many of the indicators, but not necessarily the chart of $SPX itself. A breakout above resistance and the 200-day moving average at 1265 would be required in order to turn this chart positive.
Equity-only put-call ratios have turned bullish. Market breadth swings the most wildly as these volatile moves occur. Currently, breadth indicators are on buy signals and are not yet overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
In the continuing roller coaster that is this market, Monday was a “90% up day” of gigantic proportions. Advancing volume led declining volume by a nearly 40-to-1 margin, driving the Arms Index down to a near-historic-low of 0.12 for the day. It was a pure “90% up day” in terms of “Stocks only” data, and a “90% up volume day” in terms of NYSE-data. However, as strong as it was, it did not change the bearish slant of the intermediate-term indicators.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Just over a week ago, $SPX was probing the upper end of the trading range, a few days after a strong rally on Veteran's Day. But upside momentun slowed, and selling set in. Since then, the selling has fed on itself with ample aid from a series of unsettling news:
1) the continuing European debt crisis
2) the lack of results by the Super Committee
and 3) the MF Global bankruptcy.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Despite some positive signals, the news events and market worries have swamped stocks with wave after wave of selling in the past few days.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The bears seized control with heavy selling over the past two days. However, all is not lost, but the bulls certainly squandered what could have been a good opportunity. The $SPX lows today were 1209, with a close at 1216. This is just barely clinging onto the old support range (1215-1230). A rally from this level would be viewed as just another probe to the lower end of the wider trading range.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — When the stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, broke out over 1,220 about a month ago, it was a strong bullish signal. Most of the technical indicators agreed by registering intermediate-term buy signals as well.
