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Friday, August 1st

This is a Portion of the FREE Weekly Commentary is a part of a comprehensive weekly posting for subscribers of The Option Strategist newsletter. Click here to receive the full commentary free via email. Click here for Testimonials.

Stock Market 

There have been large swings in both directions in the last week. In fact, of the last six trading days, five have seen $SPX net changes -- on a closing basis -- of 17 points or more. Even so, it appeared that the bulls were going to take charge, but they seem to have failed. After the oversold rally which ended last week, the market pulled back early this week, and then rallied. That pullback bottomed out at 1234 on $SPX, there making a "higher low" (the low of the previous week was at 1200). Then, on Wednesday (yesterday), $SPX rallied strongly, closing at a new high for this rally, at 1282. That made a "higher high" on a closing price basis, although not on an intraday basis. A pattern of higher highs and higher lows is bullish for the $SPX chart.

However, that configuration was dealt a blow by today's negative action -- thanks mostly to very negative comments by ex-Fed chief Greenspan (the market had pretty much weathered early selling, caused by worse-than-expected GDP growth). With today's pullback, the $SPX chart looks more like it has even heavier resistance at 1280, as opposed to what looked like a bullish pattern yesterday. But the "higher low" is still in place, and there are some buy signals from the technical indicators, so the bulls may still be able to take control.


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Larry McMillan has authored two best selling books on Options, including Options As A Strategic Investment, recognized as essential resources for any serious option trader's library.

As president of McMillan Analysis Corporation, he authors the "Daily Volume Alerts", and edits and publishes "The Option Strategist", a derivative products newsletter covering equity, index, and futures options.

Recognized as an options trading industry expert, serious investors have relied on his insights, observations and recommendations for years.

 


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