Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/19/17

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks finally suffered a breakdown of sorts this week, after some extremely overbought conditions -- particularly in volatility -- had appeared. But the bulls are trying mightily to contain the damage, and they look they're doing it quickly.

At this point, $SPX remains within the trading range that was delineated by the March highs and lows (2322 - 2401). Very little damage has been done to the $SPX chart. It remains in a neutral state.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain at low levels on their chart, meaning they are in an overbought state. Actually, the weighted ratio (Figure 3) has begun to curl upward, and the computer analysis programs that we use are now saying this is a "sell."

Market breadth has continued to struggle for some time. Hence, the breadth oscillators remain on sell signals, and they are not deeply oversold enough to be able to generate buy signals.

This brings us to volatility, where a lot has been going on. The most important thing to note right now is that $VIX spiked up sharply on Wednesday's selling, rising an amazing 46% in one day as it moved from 10.65 to 15.59. Now it is spiking back down, creating a buy signal.

In summary, $SPX remains in the 2322 - 2401 trading range and as long as that is the case, the market is not going much of anywhere, despite the signals from either indicators.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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