Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/1/13

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, measured by almost any broad-based index, made it through the entire month of January in a completely bullish mode. Thus the bullish trend is intact.  As for technical levels, $SPX might see some resistance at 1520. If an overbought correction does materialize, it should find support in the 1460-1470 area.

Equity-only put-call ratios have drifted into a tight, sideways range.  As a result they are not trending, and thus are not giving much of a signal one way or the other.

Market breadth has been strong, including even today when the major indices were actually slightly lower on the day.  The breadth indicators remain on buy signals, where they have been all month.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) remain at very low levels, which is generally conducive to rising stock prices, but is also eventually a warning of an extremely overbought market.

In summary, the market is overbought, but until there is some breakdown in the price of $SPX and/or some rise in the price of $VIX, the bull market can continue.

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