The positive tone set by Fed Chair Powell's speech a week ago (August 22nd) at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has continued throughout the week in various bullish ways. Initially, the strongest move belonged to the Dow ($DJX), which blasted to a substantial new all-time that day. It hasn't added to these gains yet.
At that same time, $SPX rallied to its old highs but couldn't break through until August 28th, and now it too stands at a new all-time closing and intraday high.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on August 25, 2025.
The $SPX Index has backed off slightly from its all-time highs at 6480, set last Friday. This is a modest correction, and the support levels at 6260, 6200, and 6150 are still in place. Any pullback to those levels followed by a resumption of the market rally would just be considered a correction in an ongoing bull market. However, a breakdown below 6150 would be quite negative.
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Stocks pushed to new all-time closing and intraday highs this past week on two separate days -- August 12th and 13th. Any chart making new all-time highs is, by definition, bullish. There is support at 6400, 6200, and 6150.
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The chart of $SPX remains bullish. The Index pulled back to almost exactly 6200 last Friday, August 1st, and has bounced from there. It also bounced off that level back in early July, so that is now a valid support area. Furthermore, there is support at 6150 -- the old all-time highs as of February. As long as $SPX remains above this 6150-6200 area, its chart is positive and one should maintain a bullish attitude about the stock market. A failure at the 6150 level would likely bring in some heavy selling.
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The buildup of overbought conditions has manifested itself in new confirmed sell signals. However, the $SPX chart is still positive, and will remain so, certainly as long as it's above 6150. A bullish case can theoretically be made for $SPX all the way down to 5920, but at this point, if it were to fall back below the February highs (6150), that would be psychologically damaging for it would mean that the whole breakout in June and July was a false one.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on July 28, 2025.
