By Lawrence G. McMillan
The fall of the year is a time when we trade two of our better seasonal patterns – The (month-end) October Seasonal buy and the Heating Oil Gasoline spread. In fact, it is nearly time to implement a strategy for the October Seasonal Buy – if we are going to (last year, we passed on taking a position, and that was the correct call; will this year be different?). In this article, we’ll take a more in-depth look at both of these.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
For a considerable period of time, $SPX refused to break down. From the June lows to the October highs, the trend was steadily upward as $SPX traded in a bullish channel. However, that channel was broken on Tuesday of this week, when $SPX broke through it and also broke through support at 1425-1430. This has changed the $SPX chart from bullish to, at best, neutral. Those who want final confirmation would also require a breakdown below the August lows at 1395. That would confirm an intermediate-term bearish outlook for stocks.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Since early June, the stock market — as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index SPX had remained in a steady uptrend channel. On Tuesday, however, SPX not only broke down below the lower band of that bullish channel, but also violated previously strong support at 1,425-1,430. That was a bearish action, and it is also accompanied by sell signals from many other technical indicators.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
A major support level has finally given way. With $SPX falling below 1430, a lot of selling was unleashed into the market. Rally attempts were made, but without much success. As a result, the technical picture has changed, although it could still be considered neutral rather than bearish, at least to some impartial observers. However, with the penetration of the 1430 level, not only was support broken, but so was the bullish trend line that extended back to the June lows.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
A week ago, stocks seemed to be on the brink of breaking down. But the bulls regrouped, and $SPX rallied strongly off of that support base. Hence, the 1425-1430 area is now stronger support than ever.
Equity-only put-call ratios are the most bearish indicator of the lot. They continue to rise rapidly, after having given sell signals last week. Since they are still rising, they are still on those sell signals.
Market breadth indicators are hovering right on the edge of sell signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) was under a reasonably large amount of pressure last week. By week’s end, it had declined to 1425 — a support level, right at the lower band of the bullish channel that has defined this rally that began in early June.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market has generally been declining since September 14th — the day after the Fed announced the latest round of Quantitative Easing.
Not only was the market overbought at that time, but the Fed’s announcement was widely anticipated news.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
$SPX rallied strong yesterday, bouncing off the support at 1425-1430, and that support was/is bolstered by the rising trendline at the bottom of the trading channel that has defined this bull market since June. The buying accelerated late in the day, and it seemed as if the bears were capitulating to some extent. Overnight, S&P futures have been strong again – gaining another 7 points in Globex trading.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
What is interesting to one person may not necessarily be interesting to another. For example, I find it interesting that Joe Girardi finally had the guts to pinch-hit A-Rod, thus paving the way for Raul Ibanez to become an instant hero. Others couldn’t care less. So, the topics I’m going to discuss in this article are ones that I find interesting; I have no idea if everyone will or not.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
We have been bullish continuously since early June. But recent events and indicator changes have put this short-term forecast into jeopardy.
$SPX has support at 1430 from two downward probes in September. This week, that has also been the low. Hence, it has become important support.
One of the more negative developments is the fact that both the standard and the weighted equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals now.
