Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/14/2026

By Lawrence G. McMillan

After the monster rally of 400 points in just a few days in early August, $SPX took a few days to consolidate. Now it is making new all-time highs once again. There should be some support in that consolidation area (7700-7800), with stronger support at the old highs (7620). There is also a gap at the 7600 level which would act as support as well.

There has been a good deal of reluctance on the part of the investment community to climb on board this northbound train. But it finally looks like put buying is slowing down, and the rally is spreading out to more and more issues (i.e., breadth is improving).

For example, both equity-only put-call ratios are finally on buy signals. The weighted ratio rolled over to a confirmed buy signal last week. However, the standard ratio was still quite near its recent highs, and so its buy signal wasn't confirmed until yesterday's trading was in the books.

Breadth is another area that has struggled at times. In the last week, things have improved greatly though. Even so, the NYSE-based breadth oscillator is still not yet on a buy signal. The "stocks only" breadth oscillator has been on a buy signal for over a week.

$VIX itself has declined to the lowest levels since this past January. So, finally we are seeing $VIX in a more steady downtrend as $SPX is rising. The trend of $VIX buy signal for stocks remains in place and will continue to do so as long as $VIX closes below its 200- day Moving Average.

In summary, the $SPX chart is bullish and leading the way. We have now gotten some confirmation from equity-only put-call ratios and breadth might not be far away.