Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/29/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The positive tone set by Fed Chair Powell's speech a week ago (August 22nd) at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has continued throughout the week in various bullish ways. Initially, the strongest move belonged to the Dow ($DJX), which blasted to a substantial new all-time that day. It hasn't added to these gains yet.

At that same time, $SPX rallied to its old highs but couldn't break through until August 28th, and now it too stands at a new all-time closing and intraday high.

There are now even more support areas: 6480 (the previous high from earlier in August), 6360 (last week's low), 6200 (the July lows), and 6150 (the February highs).

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise, however, which is generally bearish for stocks. As we noted last week, it seems that traders are buying stocks and buying puts.

Breadth has finally improved enough to stop out the sell signals that had been rather persistent from the breadth oscillators. If breadth can stay in a positive state while $SPX is making new all- time highs, that of course would be positive for the overall market.

The remaining indicators have to do with implied volatility, and they are all bullish at this time. With $VIX trading down to new 2025 lows this week, the trend of $VIX remains downward, and that is bullish for stocks. Also, the "spike peak" buy signal from $VIX remains in place through next week.

In summary, we are maintaining an overall bullish attitude because of the positive nature of the $SPX chart and the volatility complex. However, we still think it's a decent time to buy straddles, with $SPX at a new all-time high and volatility low. We will continue to take any confirmed signals and will continue to roll deeply in-the-money options.