By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has been meandering sideways for the past couple of weeks. This had the effect of alleviating the overbought conditions that had existed two weeks ago. Finally, today, the ennui ended, as $SPX blasted to the upside. It made new post-2008 highs, and it looks certain now to test 1440-1450.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals throughout the last three months. However, they are now reaching extremely low levels on their charts.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The volatility of the stock market has dwindled to extremely low levels. The 20-day historical volatility of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is now 6% — the lowest levels since just after Christmas last year.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has been in a dull, drifting mode all week. It is still easily within the bullish trend channel that began last August, and as long as that statement continues to be true, the bulls have the upper hand.
Equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to waver, but for the time being they remain on buy signals.
Market breadth oscillators turned bearish a week ago. They have remained on sell signals ever since.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Despite the fact that the news media and fundamentalists can’t seem to find any reason to like this market, it refuses to sell off. In fact, as we head into the last holiday of summer, the market is poised near four-year highs.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
For most of the last two weeks, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) plowed ahead, finally making new post-2008 highs this past Tuesday. Our intermediate-term indicators have been bullish for over two months now, so these new highs were in line with those indicators. However, as soon as the new highs were made, $SPX began to retreat, and an overbought correction now appears to be underway.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This market is becoming the ultimate in defying bearish opinion. Since June 1st, $SPX has advanced almost exactly 150 points and is nearly back to the yearly highs -- and therefore at a post-2008 high. Yet, bearish opinion is still rather rampant.
$SPX remains within the rising trading channel that extends back to early June (see Figure 1). It is near the top of the channel, so in that sense, it is "overbought."
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index continues to rise (albeit very slowly of late). Even though the rise is slow, the fact that there has not been a correction in some time has led to some overbought conditions. SPX has not had a significant down day since Aug. 2. Thus, the odds of an overbought-induced short-term correction have increased.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
(Barron's) - This bull market is rather unpopular—and that's good.
Since the rally began in early June, most investors and traders have doubted the advance because they were so afraid of Europe's debt crisis, U.S. economic problems, and even the U.S. presidential election.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Stocks have rallied to the top of the bullish $SPX channel (see chart, Figure 1). The top of the channel is at about 1410 currently, and the yearly highs are at 1420. So, that area is likely to provide some resistance for now.
Meanwhile, equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish.
Market breadth indicators are on buy signals, having reversed negative signals from the previous week.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Bears are having trouble understanding why the stock market continues to rise, but in reality it’s due in part to the fact that there are still too many bears. Many of the people who would be sellers have already sold and are now sitting back waiting for the market to go down. That strategy rarely works.
