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By Lawrence G. McMillan
July $VIX settlement took place this morning. The official settlement price was 19.10, just slightly below last night's $VIX close of 19.21. All outstanding June futures and options contracts will settle at that price. For example, if you own a July 20 put and didn't sell it prior to today, it would settle for 0.90 ($90 per contract), since it is 90 cents in the money (20 minus 19.10).
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market is finally staging a strong rally. Is it just a “Turnaround Tuesday” thing, or have the bears fumbled the ball (they weren’t moving it very well anyway)? I’m sure there’s plenty of room for debate regarding either of those stances, and both are probably true to some extent.
Today’s move solidifies support on $SPX at 1295-1300, and that remains an important area. On the upside, the important level to overcome would be the 1330 level.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market action this week has been quite bearish and, frankly, quite out of character in terms of the indicators, but it may also be a rather severe reaction to the overbought conditions that had built up.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) had strong upside momentum a week ago, but ran into resistance very near the April highs.
Equity-only put-call ratios are bullish and have remained bullish even during this week's decline.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market was extremely strong through last Thursday, and then the wheels began to fall off. The market has fallen sharply since then, and both yesterday and today, late-day declines wiped out promising rallies.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market’s still-overbought condition, coupled with some negative news regarding financial problems in Italy, resulted in a severe down day yesterday – a true “90% down day,” as it turned out. A late-day rally seemed to ease things a bit, but overnight the situation has been exacerbated, and S&P futures are down another 6 points in Globex trading (they were actually down 23 at one point, but positive inflation news out of England brought the markets back a great deal).
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market continued its bullish explosion this week. $SPX broke through its previous down trend line last Friday, and has now overcome the late-May high. All that remains is a test of the post-2009 highs at 1370.
Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish when they peaked and began to fall. These are intermediate-term buy signals.
Market breadth has been very strong during the rally. Breadth indicators remain on buy signals, but are now very overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The week leading up to the Fourth of July holiday was a “perfect storm” of bullish activity, or at least it turned out that way. There were several technical, seasonal, and even some fundamental factors at work. There was an oversold condition, month-end window dressing, first-of-the-money seasonal factor, pre-holiday bullish seasonal patterns, and even some help from Europe (delaying the Greek credit crisis). Add it all together and it was one of the strongest weeks in recent memory.
By Lawrence G. Mcmillan
Friday wound up one of the strongest weeks in stock market history. It was a perfect storm of events, topped off by a pre-holiday, thin trading session on the first day of the month. There are now some fairly extreme overbought conditions in the breadth oscillators. However, as we’ve explained before, these are actually bullish conditions for the new upside breakout. Of course, in the very short term, the market needs to slow down a bit and regroup.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
A huge stock market rally developed this week, due to a number of factors. The S&P500 Index ($SPX) entered the week in a downtrend. Depending on how you look at things, it might still be in a downtrend (see Figure 1, blue line). But it did overcome resistance at 1300 (last week's high) and 1310, so that is a positive development.
Put-call ratios have reached extreme levels, but have stubbornly been refusing to give confirmed buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The S&P 500 Index is trying to reverse its downtrend, and appears that it has at least partially done so.
The downtrending 20-day moving average of SPX SPX +0.73% is at about 1297, and the highs of last week were at 1298. So a close above that level would change the SPX chart from bearish to neutral. A close above 1310 would turn it bullish.
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