On Tuesday (February 13th), there was a negative CPI report, and the market fell sharply in two heavy waves of selling. But late in the day, buyers came in and they have been buying the market for the entire rest of the week. So, this seems very similar to the sharp, one-day selloff of late January. It eventually amounted to nothing.
The major indices are making new all-time highs with regularity. This includes $SPX, of course (as well as $NDX and the Dow), so we are still maintaining our "core" bullish position. There are some nagging worries -- such as the failure of small-caps ($RUT; IWM) to keep pace -- but until those worries become actual sell signals, they won't deter us from our bullish outlook.
February has been a big problem for the stock market in recent years. The table below shows the $SPX results for February going back to 2002.
New all-time highs (both intraday and closing) were registered on Friday, January 19th, by $SPX. Since then, $SPX has added onto those gains every day, setting new all-time closing highs each day. It seems that a large chunk of the buying impetus came from short covering and "chasing" by longs who weren't fully invested. But there isn't the euphoria that one might normally expect to see, since many stocks are in far worse shape than the major indices.
New 2024 highs have been registered this week for $SPX. The all-time highs for $SPX were set in January 2022. The intraday high was 4818, and the closing high was 4796. Most recently, $SPX has not bettered either of those numbers, but it's not far away. A two-day close above 4800 would be enough confirmation that the next leg of the bull market is ready to take place.
Heavy selling hit the market this week. Part of that was due to the fact that traders didn't want to sell in 2023, because of the taxes that would be owed. So, they sold in 2024, deferring the tax bill for a year. But there is more to the story than that, as overbought conditions had built up to the point where sell signals are now appearing in numerous places although not in the implied volatility ($VIX) complex.
Stocks continue to plow higher, with most major indices making new highs for 2023 just as the year is coming to an end. Furthermore, $SPX is just a short distance from its all-time highs, set in January 2022, so new all-time highs seem certain to be attained early in 2024.
