Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/30/2026

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This week saw $SPX make new all-time highs once again and even cross above 7,000 for the first time in history. Was that enough to generate a clear upside breakout? No! Normally, when new highs are made especially repeatedly as they have been since November there would be some strong follow-through to the upside. That has not been the case this time around.

So far, the pullbacks have been fairly minor. The only one of any significance was the "tariff tantrum" over the European tariffs and Greenland in mid-January. That was quickly overcome, leaving a support area at 6800. There is stronger support at 6720, which is the December 2025 lows. If that were broken, then a very bearish scenario would unfold.

Equity-only put-call ratios have been declining for the past week or more. That puts them on buy signals, which will remain in place as long as the ratios are declining.

Breadth had attempted to stay positive for most of this month of January. However, it has begun to slip again, and now the breadth oscillators are on the brink of sell signals.

Implied volatility -- $VIX and its various associated trading vehicles and Indices -- has been showing some early signs of "worry," but so far it has not been able to sustain a significant rise of any sort. The buy signal that arose after the latest "tariff tantrum" is still in place (green "B" on the chart in Figure 4). In addition, the trend of $VIX buy signal that originated last December (pink "B" on chart) is intact as well.

Finally, there is a positive seasonal period from the 18th trading day of January (January 29th), extending for the next four or five trading days.

So, most of the indicators are bullish, but $SPX price action is not able to confirm a strong upside breakout. Normally, when new highs are repeatedly made, shorts begin to throw in the towel and the "fear of missing out" crowd tags along as well. Those factors push $SPX swiftly to higher highs. That hasn't happened (yet). We will continue to take new signals as they occur and will continue to roll deeply in-the-money options.