Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/5/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A week ago, $SPX had made new all-time highs and was flying high on the back of the Fed seemingly turning more dovish (i.e., willing to lower interest rates). But then September began, and the media was full of articles about how it's the worst month (which is true) and traders should beware. So the first trading day of September (last Tuesday) resulted in a sharp intraday loss. However, $SPX rebounded later that day, and since then $SPX has ploddingly moved higher and is now at new all-time highs once again.

Tuesday's low at 6360 joins with the previous week's low at 6340 to provide a support area. As has been the case for a while, there is also further support at 6200 and 6150.

Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to buy signals. The ratios are still pretty low on their charts, but as long as they are trending down that is bullish for stocks. On the charts in Figures 2 and 3, the blue "S" signifies that those previous put-call ratio sell signals were unprofitable. The green "b" means that the current signal's success has yet to be determined.

Breadth has not been strong -- certainly not of the magnitude that we'd like to see with $SPX making new all-time highs. As a result, the breadth oscillators are still on sell signals. They've drifted in and out of that designation, but there has not been any sustainable period of positive breadth for a while now.

The implied volatility complex has generally been in a positive state for stocks. The "spike peak" buy signal of August 4th is now completed Meanwhile, the trend of $VIX buy signal is still in place, from its beginning in early July (pink "B" on the bottom of the chart in Figure 4).

In summary, the $SPX chart remains positive, which is most important, but not all indicators agree. We will take new signals as they occur and will continue to roll deeply in-the-money options.