If there were any doubts about the validity of the breakout to new all- time highs, they should be satisfied by now. $SPX has support at 1900, and then all the way down to 1860.
The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio had been lagging, but finally moved into the bullish column last week, joining the weighted ratio.
Market breadth was on the verge of sell signals this week, but they did not occur. So, both breadth oscillators remain on buy signals.
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The broad market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) and other indices, has broken out to new all-time highs again. This time, the breakout quickly extended with a strong second day, and today added even more distance. This has turned the $SPX chart bullish.
This is the only issue to be published in May, and it is a “double issue.” The reason for this change in the publication schedule was an extensive travel schedule from April 30th through May 15th. While not technically twice the length, there are twice the number of articles.
The stock market is proving to be frustrating to both bulls and bears. Despite chances for each, neither camp has been able to take control. The resistance level at 1900 for $SPX has thwarted the bulls, despite making marginal new all-time highs early last week. Conversely, the bears have had a couple of strong down days, but they have not been able to break $SPX down below support at 1860.
...Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain split, with the standard on a sell, and the weighted on a buy. We plan to delve into why this is happening – in an article in this week’s Option Strategist newsletter – but the short answer is that traders are buying out-of-the-money, low-priced puts for protection.
It is hard to imagine a market any more perverse than this one. Once again, there has been a failure to break out on the upside, despite some favorable (although not unanimous) technical conditions. Now $SPX has pulled back into the previous trading range, whose limits of 1810-1900 are more secure than ever.
Tuesday saw very little follow-through to Monday’s strong day, and that was disappointing. Although $SPX and other major averages made marginal new all-time highs, it certainly didn’t look or feel like a good day. $SPX has technically broken out, and it has support all the way down to 1880, or even slightly below.
