Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/17/2026

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Buying the dip has been working on an intraday basis recently, but the larger picture is that there are dips to buy almost every day. That means that $SPX is not making much progress. Despite breaking out on the upside from the triangle formation that had existed, it has run into resistance at 7580 and has failed to challenge the all-time highs at 7600-7620. This keeps the $SPX chart from being upgraded to "bullish." Rather, it is range-bound at best.

There is support at 7420 the lows of early July. Then below that the lower side of the triangle is still in place, and a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. There are further support areas below there, but a reversal from a challenge of the highs to a drop below 7300 would be a very negative psychological blow to the general market.

Equity-only put-call ratios had improved, but we never got a confirmed buy signal from the standard ratio. Now that ratio has moved to a new relative high thereby re-confirming its sell signal. The weighted ratio did have a confirmed buy signal, but it too has begun to rise, so that most recent buy signal is somewhat in doubt.

Breadth hasn't been good, either. When there was some seriously negative breadth on July 7th and 8th, that rolled the breadth oscillators over to sell signals, where they remain to this date. Even though there has been some recent improvement especially in NYSE breadth these sell signals remain in place.

Implied volatility has remained subdued, with $VIX continuing to hover near 16. As long as $VIX remains below its 200-day Moving Average, the trend of $VIX system buy signal remains in effect for stocks.

In summary, $SPX remains locked in a trading range. The internal indicators are mixed, with breadth and sentiment (put-call ratios) much more bearish than implied volatility or New Highs. We will continue to act on confirmed signals regardless. Furthermore, it is important to roll deeply in-the-money positions as they arise.