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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/13/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The strong bull run that took place throughout October and into early November is over. The break of support at 2070 was negative for $SPX. It could trade down to the 2000-2020 area in the short term.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals, even as $SPX has begun to falter. This perhaps indicates that the current decline is just a minor correction, and not something of a more intermediate-term nature.

Market breadth has been weak, which is not surprising since breadth has been a laggard for 15 months. Breadth oscillators are now on sell signals, but are already in oversold territory.

Volatility indices and derivatives have begun to move higher again. $VIX closed well above 17 today, and that is bearish.

To summarize, we now have sell signals from several areas, although put-call ratios are notable holdouts. This is enough to warrant a short-term bearish stance.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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