The stock market is stalled at the high end of its trading range (1810-1900). There is near-term support at last Monday's low of 1850.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain split. The weighted ratio continues to decline from a recent high, and that means it's on a buy signal, while the standard ratio remains on a sell signal.
The stock market is once again nearing all-time highs, although it has not broken out (yet). If $SPX can't punch on through to new highs, then it will remain within the widened trading range. At this point, most of the technical indicators are bullish, so we would expect at least an attempt to challenge the highs.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals for over a month now. That is beginning to change, as the ratios are starting to roll over.
The stock market abruptly ended its decline of a week ago and rallied all week. Wednesday's strongly higher opening turned into an overall bullish day, and as a result a number of indicators rolled over to buy signals or generated new buy signals as well.
The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place. But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012. We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook is now turning bearish.
The broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) made new all-time intraday and closing highs on consecutive days this week. That, coupled with some new buy signals from breadth makes our intermediate-term outlook bullish.
Countering the bullish case is the fact that the equity-only put- call ratios have stubbornly remained on sell signals, but this might be protective hedging activity.
The market action in the last 10 days has been a complete whipsaw. Now, the chart of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) shows the index to be in a trading range -- bounded by resistance at 1880+ (the all-time highs) and support at 1840 (last Friday's lows).
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, even though the market has bounced back this week.
This stock market has been able to ward off even a modest correction
since the fall of 2012. However, we are now seeing a chart breakdown
accompanied by sell signals from some of our most trusted indicators.
If the bears can't make some hay with this environment, I would be
surprised.
Equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell signals.
This week's action makes the $SPX chart bullish (how could it be anything else when trading at new all-time highs?).
There is no technical resistance for a chart at new all-time highs. There is support at 1850 (which had been resistance), then at 1825- 1835 below that. It is our opinion that a close below 1825 would be quite negative.
Equity-only put-call charts continue to be bullish.
The broad market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has finally managed to close at a new all-time high. A second day closing above 1850 would solidify the breakout and give it more credence.
Equity-only put-call ratios (Figure 2 and 3) have finally rolled over to buy signals.
Market breadth has been strong all month. As a result, the breadth indicators remain on buy signals, but they are in deeply overbought territory.
