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In focus: Higher volatility lies ahead

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The levitation act is over. History shows us that the market is about to become more volatile. However, the market move can be in either direction.

Equity-only put-call ratios both on confirmed sell signals

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The pressure that has been building is weighing more heavily on the market now.  This will be the 10th day in the last 11 that “stocks only” breadth has been negative (unless there is a monster rally this afternoon).  As a result, that breadth oscillators is approaching oversold territory.  It’s been quite some time since anything has been oversold, as far as the major averages go.

Weekly Commentary 3/2/2012

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Perhaps the first crack in the armor of this slow-motion bull market occurred this week, after Ben Bernanke spooked the market with his contention that there wouldn't be further easing.

The $SPX chart is still bullish.  There is support at 1340-1350, and the 20-day moving average is at about 1350.     

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, but the weighted ratio is so low on its chart that it might be capable of rolling over to a sell signal without a lot of trouble.

Expect more volatility in March

By Lawrence G. McMillan

MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — As this bull market has progressed — especially the most recent leg since the early October lows of 2011 — volatility has steadily dropped. Now it has reached a point where one might reasonably consider defensive or even bearish strategies, but not until there is at least one initial break in the bullish trend.

In focus: A crack in the dam?

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Ben Bernanke doesn’t have a lot of friends these days, and he lost some of those with his statements before Congress yesterday.

The slow-motion ascent remains in place - $SPX $VIX

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Once again, $SPX made new post-2008 closing and intraday highs, and now it has finally closed above the 2011 intraday highs (oh, and yes, the Dow Jones Industrials closed above 13,000, so maybe we can stop hearing about this ridiculous and meaningless number from the media for a while).  There is strong support in the 1340-1350 area. The slow-motion ascent remains in place. The last time that $SPX closed below its 20-day moving average was December 20th, 2011.  The last day that $SPX even touched its 20-day moving average was December 21st, 2011.

Weekly Commentary 2/23/2012

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) pulled back only a little, but that was enough to alleviate some of the overbought conditions and to establish support at 1340.

Equity-only put-call ratios have begun to move sideways recently, but they remain on buy signals.

Market breadth was fairly negative from Feb 10th through Feb 15th. That was enough to alleviate the serious overbought condition that had existed in the breadth oscillators. Since then, breadth has improved again, and at this time, breadth is on a buy signal.

In focus: Bulls refuse to yield

By Lawrence G. McMillan

In a brazen display of strength, the stock market — as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index — held up very well this week. Tuesday was perhaps the most crucial day in that a large number of traders had pre-announced that they would become sellers upon the news that either a) the Greek debit crisis had a definitive settlement plan, and/or b) the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,000. Both of those things occurred on Tuesday morning, and yes the market did decline — at first.

The important level for $SPX remains 1340

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market had all kinds of good news hurdles to overcome yesterday, and it did a pretty good job of it.   The number of traders looking to sell when either a) the Greek agreement was reached, and/or b) the Dow hit 13,000.  Both of those occurred yesterday morning, and the market did indeed fall back.  But then it rallied later on, posting small gains for the day.  To me, that was fairly bullish action.  A microcosm of that action took place overnight as well, with the futures falling and then recovering.

Weekly Commentary 2/16/12

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Was the two-day selloff on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week enough to refuel the bulls?  It may have been.

$SPX closed at a new high for this post-October rally, although it has not yet exceeded the 2011 high at 1370.  With today's rally there is clearly strong support at 1340. which is at 1290.      

Equity-only put-call ratios are technically on buy signals. However, they edged higher over the last two days.      

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