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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/8/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has taken a real beating in the new year. Massive oversold conditions have arisen, and a sharp, but short-lived rally is possible at any time. The larger picture, though, is an intermediate-term bearish one.

$SPX has been down-trending since early December, when the first pattern of lower highs was established. The current pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, and that is bearish.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/4/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market had been muddling its way through the Santa Claus rally period, and this now looks like it will put the final, negative touches on this seasonally important period.

At this time, the chart of $SPX is bearish, with lower highs and lower lows (see Figure 1). There is support near 2000, where $SPX appears to be headed for a retest very early in the new year.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/27/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has now climbed slightly above its declining 20-day moving average, and that is where oversold rallies usually die out. Despite the strength of the last week, $SPX has not even exceeded last week's high, much less the more important peak of early December.  It is in a downtrend, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/20/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), did a complete about-face this week, despite the terrorist atrocities after the market closed last Friday.

The rally has carried back to just above the 20-day moving average. Ultimately, there is resistance from 2115 to 2135, the series of market tops that have been made in the last year.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/13/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The strong bull run that took place throughout October and into early November is over. The break of support at 2070 was negative for $SPX. It could trade down to the 2000-2020 area in the short term.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals, even as $SPX has begun to falter. This perhaps indicates that the current decline is just a minor correction, and not something of a more intermediate-term nature.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 11/6/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market's strong rally has continued for another week, although it's beginning to act a bit tired, and the market is getting overbought. Even so, the $SPX chart is still in an uptrend, and there is support at 2040, 2020 and 2000.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to plunge, and that is bullish for stocks. These ratios are now in the lower portion of their charts, which is just on the verge of being overbought.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/30/2015

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), has gained 220 points in a month (since the September 28th lows).  After such a strong advance in so short of a time, one would have to say that the market is overbought.  Even so, actual sell signals have been hard to come by.

The $SPX chart itself remains bullish in that it is in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and the 20-day moving average is rising.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/23/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Earlier this week, it appeared that the rally that began at the end of October was lagging. But then Thursday, the market blew through resistance at 2040 and reaffirmed the bullish case with authority. A violation of the 1990 would remove the "bullish" label from the $SPX chart.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline (Figures 2 and 3).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/16/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has taken on a much more bullish tone since the late- September lows.  We had several buy signals on September 30th, and they were well-timed.  The bullish case is still strong, even after $SPX has advanced 150 points this month.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/9/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A week ago, we noted that there were three short-term, oversold buy signals. Now, more buy signals are occurring, and these are of the intermediate-term variety. The last hurdle was cleared today, when the $SPX closed above 2000.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline from recent highs.

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