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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/21/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Most major stock indices made new 2023 highs this past week ($RUT; IWM is still a little shy of that). Thus, the charts remain positive, and a "core" bullish position is warranted. There are several gaps on the $SPX chart, and a pullback to support at 4440 would fill all the recent ones. There is further support at 4385, and then major support at 4330 and 4200. A violation of the support at 4330 would be a very negative development and would require a change of our "core" position, but a pullback of that depth doesn't seem likely right now.

On the upside, the next resistance area is at 4650, the March 2022 highs, which occurred early in the 2022 bear market. Beyond that, the all-time highs at 4800 could be in play.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/14/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The last five trading days have seen $SPX rally strongly, breaking out to new 2023 highs. This keeps the $SPX chart bullish and keeps us in our "core" bullish position. $SPX has now reached the first (minor) resistance area at 4510. Above here, the next significant resistance is at 4630, and then the all-time highs at 4800 would be within reach.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/7/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks charged ahead to a new yearly high at the end of the second quarter, but have faltered a bit since then. A rather sharp pullback occurred yesterday, based on fears that the central banks around the world are not done raising interest rates. That's news? I guess it was to those who sold yesterday. In any case, that pullback closed a couple of upside gaps on the $SPX chart. However, it has left a potentially important island reversal on the $SPX chart now (circled area on the chart in Figure 1).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/30/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The correction that took place following June option expiration (the 3rd Friday) lasted just about a week, and prices have rallied since then. That decline bottomed out at about 4330 very nearly the peak of last August. So that is the first support level now. There is further support at 4200, the level which had represented resistance for so long. Any pullbacks should find ample support there, but if $SPX were to fall back below 4200, that would represent a very bearish development.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/23/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

When $SPX broke out over 4300 on June 9th, a strong rally was unleashed. Perhaps that rally got carried away, as several indicators moved into overbought territory, and the Index itself traded above its +4sigma "modified Bollinger Band" (mBB). That exhausted a lot of buying power it seems, and now the Index is pulling back.

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