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The
Short-Term Consensus
HOTLINE
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Mutual
Funds and Stocks Update
Friday, March 23, 2001 - After the close.
Dow 9505 (+115) SPX 1139.83 (+22.25) NDX 1705 (+3)
RUSSELL 443.27 (+10.47) BTK 444.51 (+17.32)
In last Friday's Mutual
Fund Report, I asked the rhetorical question of the day,
"Are we there yet?" My answer, "apparently
not," was certainly the understatement of the day.
Since then, the Dow plunged over 700 points to Thursday's
low, and the S&P fell almost 80 points, before the
sharp recovery into yesterday's close. Once the dust had
settled, and we were able to find all the pieces, things
didn't look so bad. For the week, the S&P was off less
than 1%, the Nasdaq was actually positive by 2%, the
Russell up .3%, while the Dow, the hardest hit, was down
another 3.2%. As you know, we had been looking for the
Nasdaq (and NDX) to begin outperforming the other
averages. This week's action strongly suggests that the
shift of funds back into the Nasdaq has begun.
Despite a few fairly tense
moments, mainly on Thursday when the market appeared to be
in freefall, our Models and our Client Accounts actually
handled the volatility quite well. In fact, both our
Short-Term Model and our Client Accounts showed a decent
profit for this wild week. Of course, our strongest
performance was in the Futures market, where, in three
instances, we bought the S&P and Nasdaq Futures within
a few points of contract lows. But that requires a
slightly different time frame—minutes to hours, rather
than days to weeks... The good news is that for the week
our SHORT-TERM MODEL actually managed to pick up over 3%
by maintaining our buy signal IN THE NDX, WHICH HAD THE
STRONGEST PERFORMANCE OF ANY OF THE MAJOR AVERAGES, UP
OVER 3%. The bad news is, we haven't done much to improve
our position for the Intermediate Term, where we remain
stuck on a buy signal in the S&P.
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As of today's close, OUR SHORT-TERM MODEL HAS NOW RETURNED TO
POSITIVE TERRITORY YEAR-TO-DATE (JUST BARELY), WHILE THE NASDAQ IS
DOWN 21%, THE S&P SHOWS A LOSS OF ABOUT 14%, AND THE DOW HAS
GIVEN UP 1284 POINTS.
WHILE WE LOOK FOR MORE OF A RECOVERY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD, WE
SUSPECT THAT IT WILL BE A BUMPY ROAD WITH SOME MORE BAD NEWS AND
RELATED SELLOFFS ALONG THE WAY. SO WHILE WE WISH TO MAINTAIN A
BULLISH BIAS, WE WILL TRY TO LEAVE SOME POWDER DRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE INEVITABLE SHAKE-OUTS PRIOR TO SIGNS THAT THE
MUCH-ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY.
MUTUAL FUND SIGNALS:
OUR INTERMEDIATE-TERM TRADING MODEL remains on it buy signal.
OUR INTERMEDIATE-TERM MODEL (as reported to Timer Digest) also
remains on its buy signal.
OUR SHORT-TERM MUTUAL FUND MODEL IS STILL ON ITS BUY SIGNAL IN
THE NDX SINCE THE CLOSE OF MARCH 9. As noted above, our Short-Term
Model moved back into the black (though just barely) at today's
close.
CLIENT ACCOUNTS:
You will recall from last Friday's report, that we were loaded up
in our Mutual Funds at a 135% invested level, and I explained that
we would be cutting back our exposure at the "first opportunity
next week." We, of course, reduced our exposure from 135% down
to 100% into Monday's pre-FOMC meeting, but then added to our
positions again on the subsequent selloff.... It was always my
intention to reduce our exposure to more manageable levels, given
the opportunity. Yesterday's recovery in the NDX, and today's
rebound in the SPX and the Russell, provided that opportunity,
enabling us to lighten up while still maintaining enough of a
position to be beneficial on a further advance. While our core
holdings have lost considerable value on the recent decline, because
of our profitable "trading positions," the net effect has
not been too serious. And while we are not happy about showing a
loss in our Client Accounts year-to-date, we are encouraged that
after this very severe decline, we are well ahead of the averages
and now positioned to take advantage of a significant recovery,
which we look for in the months ahead.
At today's close, we are 80% invested using the following
allocations:
30% S&P (exited a 10% trading position today for a loss of
only .3%)
20% Small Cap (exited 10% today for a small loss)
10% NDX (exited a 15% position on Thursday for about a 6% profit)
10% Drugs
10% Retailers
0% Biotech (exited today for a modest loss)
You will notice that we are currently underweighted in
technology, which was the result of our trading strategy (taking a
quick 6% profit) more than any attempt at asset allocation. Because
the NDX and the SEMICONDUCTORS continue to be our preferred
investment vehicle, we will be looking to reestablish our positions
here into pullbacks, overweighting these areas if conditions permit.
For the moment, we are content to hold our positions at this 80%
invested level, though we will be looking for opportunities to take
additional profits if the market becomes extended, or add further to
our positions if the market gets slammed.
I'll be back Tuesday.
H. Schiller
Release at 8:56 pm eastern

Overnight Report for Monday, April 2, 2001. Prepared Sunday
night.
I'll be back any night this week with another Overnight Report
following a close in the Dow back below 9300 or above 10,400,
otherwise back next Sunday night.
This past week the market behaved pretty much as expected. You'll
recall in Sunday's report, I called for "more of a recovery
early this week, likely to stall out by Tuesday." We were
expecting a retracement of the recent rebound "but not coming
close to last week's washout lows. We expect the market to have
managed a decent recovery by week's end." The market rallied
sharply into Tuesday's close with the Dow rebounding 443 points in
just two days and the S&P up over 42 points. Then, right on
schedule (stalling out by Tuesday), the market topped out and turned
sharply lower. But also as expected, not approaching the prior
week's lows, at least in the Dow and the S&P. At week's end, the
Dow had managed a gain of 3.9%, the S&P up 1.7%, though the
Nasdaq had given up over 4%.
POSITIONS
MUTUAL FUND SIGNALS:
OUR INTERMEDIATE-TERM TRADING MODEL remains on it buy signal.
OUR SHORT-TERM MUTUAL FUND MODEL RETURNED TO A BUY SIGNAL IN THE
NDX MIDWEEK. While underwater in the current position by almost 2%,
THE SHORT-TERM MODEL IS PROFITABLE BY .2% FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF
2001. MEANWHILE, FOR THE FIRST QUARTER, THE DOW LOST 8.4%, THE
S&P LOST 12.1%, AND THE NASDAQ LOST 22.5%.
FUTURES TRADERS: Here we continue to identify low-risk,
high-probability entries as we, once again, bought the futures (Nasdaq
100) within a few points of new life-of-contract lows. WE ARE LONG
THE JUNE NASDAQ 100 (MINI CONTRACT) FROM 1550. AHEAD BY 40 POINTS AT
FRIDAY'S CLOSE.
INDEX OPTIONS: While continuing to take advantage of swings in
both directions, we are maintaining bullish positions in QQQ, OEX,
and DJ Options.
METALS: We were stopped out of our position in June Gold (rolled
over from the April contract) for a break-even trade.
BONDS: We continue to hold short June bonds from 106^24 near
recent contract highs, with our stop tightened to lock in a 1-point
($1000) profit.
OVERVIEW
Again, little to add to our recent analysis of the market's
risk/reward parameters. It is now a foregone conclusion that "a
short-term low is in place and while the (March 22) lows may be
retested and possibly broken in the weeks ahead, we (still) suspect
that, at least for the moment, there is greater upside potential
than downside risk" (from our report of March 23).
SENTIMENT
In Sunday night's report, I noted that the "weak link"
in the sentiment picture was the Investors' Intelligence data, which
continued to reflect "too many bullish advisors out
there." While we can't get too excited about the improvement
here, as the numbers are still not at levels typical of important
market bottoms, they are getting a lot closer. This week's data
reflected a sharp increase in the percentage of bearish advisors,
jumping from 31% to 38%, while bulls fell from almost 52% back below
49%. Not long ago, the spread between bulls and bears was over 30
percentage points; now its only 18 percentage points.... We're not
there yet, but we've come a long way, baby.
Put/call ratios have dropped, as would be expected, as some of
the panic has come out of the market. Friday's reading of .76 on the
CBOE, according to Steve Todd, was a decent number. And Steven
Hochberg reports that the 10-day CBOE put/call ratio, while dropping
from .84 on March 22, its highest level in 2-1/2 years, is still on
the high side at .68. Bob Carver, however, reports "two
straight days of extremely overly-bullish readings at the end of
last week in his dollar-weighted OEX put/call sentiment ratio,"
which he figures suggests there will be more selling ahead. Larry
McMillan, meanwhile, reports that his recent buy signals are
"mainly intact," including both the equity-only normal and
weighted put/call ratios. Larry cautions, though, that these buy
signals are "somewhat tenuous" and could easily be
cancelled. Larry also currently reports a buy signal on the VIX.
Speaking of the VIX, our favorite single sentiment gauge, while
still at a relatively healthy reading of 33.82, it is well off of
recent extremes; likewise, its cousins, VXN and QQV, are at healthy
readings but also off their highs.
The Timer Digest Top Ten, while still on a sell signal, has moved
to a less extreme 4 bulls and 6 bears. Under the circumstances, with
some of the bulls looking for only a short-term rally, this looks
like a fairly healthy number, as the consensus view is clearly for
significantly lower prices ahead.
OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
While the readings of March 22 in this category were among the
most extreme in years, with last week's recovery and the simple
passing of time without a further collapse, many of these indicators
have moved back toward more neutral readings. While a long way from
overbought, the market is no longer terribly oversold. The McClellan
Oscillator has moved back to a neutral +10.8. The 10-day Trin is
also hovering around neutral at .99. Steve Todd reports 5-day RSI in
the S&P is 48 and in the Nasdaq it is closer to oversold at 36.
These, however, are not readings to get excited about.
MARKET INTERNALS
One reason that the McClellan Oscillator has moved back to the
neutral zone so rapidly is because A/D statistics have improved
dramatically. The McClellan Oscillator (and many other oscillators
tied to the NYSE) typically will appear more oversold as the NYSE
A/D line deteriorates. No big surprise that this week, with positive
advance/decline statistics, these oscillators have recovered from
extreme oversold readings. Gerald Appel notes that for the week
there were almost twice as many advancing issues as declining issues
on the NYSE. Also, there were almost twice as many new 52-week highs
as 52-week lows. Gerald, by the way, is back on his Time Trend buy
signal. Still needing some more help from the Nasdaq before getting
a buy signal there. Gerald notes that it is good news that the
S&P has begun to trade within its trading band (rather than
below it). Steven Hochberg, however, cautions that volume has not
expanded much on this recovery and figures that the improvement in
breadth may have been tied to end-of-quarter window dressing. Andy
Addison notes that while the Dow registered a series of lower lows,
the Dow held its trend line and momentum diverged positively as it
made a higher low than last year's low.
CYCLES
Of course, there's a monthly cycle which tends to be good for
strength on the last day of the month and the first few (4) days of
the new month. So far, the market has behaved as it should with
Friday's advance.
Howard Winnell, for the big picture, says that an important
intermediate-term bottom is forming.
Doug Jimerson, of National Trendline, says that short-term cycles
have bottomed and are positive through this Thursday (in line with
the monthly pattern), but he remains on a sell signal.
Dale Woodson, currently ranked No. 1 by Timer Digest, moved to a
buy signal on March 26, looking for a bounce in the S&P to 1195,
at which point he would return to a sell signal.
Mark Leibovit remains on a buy signal since March 22, looking for
a recovery for the short term.
Craig Corcoran cautions that it's too early to begin initiating a
bullish stance.
Peter Eliades looks for a top early this week, noting that
trading index readings have now returned to their most overbought
levels since January 30, marking this year's closing high in the
S&P.
Larry McMillan remains cautiously on a buy signal while looking
for more confirmation from his indicators.
Andy Addison is betting that "as long as the 9000 area of
the Dow holds, as I expect, then a period of recuperation will
begin."
On a much shorter-term basis, Jerry Favors looks for a high
around April 5, a low around April 9, and another high around April
19. Jerry notes that the Bradley Indicator calls for a high on April
9, but figures that the Bradley is "inverting," and
instead this date will mark a low.
HOW ABOUT THE NASDAQ?
On Friday, the Nasdaq may have put in a (another) short-term low.
We suspect it was significant that while the NDX, the narrower of
indices, made a new 2-1/2 year low, the Composite made a perfect
double bottom with the previous week's low. In addition, as Steven
Hochberg and co. point out, the Nasdaq has now pulled back to an
area where it traded for 19 months back in 1997-1998, providing
perhaps a bit of longer-term support. In addition, Steven says that
the NDX appears to have "traced out a 5-way rise from its low
of 1530.14 (on Friday)."
The end-of-quarter window dressing phenomenon, we figure, really
took its toll on the Nasdaq as fund managers were most eager to
unload any stock in their portfolios associated with technology.
Anything that had batteries or plugged into a wall got dumped
without regard to price. We suspect these stocks may have seen their
worst, and at least for a while, despite earnings warnings season
fast approaching (for the next quarter), the downside pressure may
be abating. Also, as we have discussed before, the influence of
Japanese institutional selling should have come to an end, at least
for the short term. With these rather artificial pressures off of
the market, the Nasdaq in particular, we should see a decent bounce
at a minimum. Certainly a break of Friday's lows, particularly in
the Composite, would not be a good sign. However, even in that case,
we may see the running of some stops below the market, and then a
turn back to the upside.
WHAT TO EXPECT
We look for more of a recovery this week, with the Nasdaq and NDX
likely to lead the market higher. A break of the double-bottom low
at 1794 in the Nasdaq Composite would certainly damage this scenario
however. Though, in any case, we look for the major averages to show
further gains this week.
Look for a rebound early in the week, followed by selling
pressure as the Dow approaches 10,000 or the S&P Futures
approach the 1200 level. Overall, we look for prices to trend higher
in choppy fashion. If the market has rallied into midweek, expect
profit taking and possibly a sharp pullback in front of Friday's
unemployment report.
I'll be back Sunday, if not sooner.
H. Schiller
Release at 1:08 am eastern

Bonds and Precious Metals Update - produced Wednesday night,
April 25, 2001
JUNE BONDS 100^20 (-0^): Despite the recent pullback in the stock
market and indications of further rate cuts ahead, bonds have been
unable to sustain a rally of any consequence. However, bonds
continue to hold above recent lows (near 100) despite signs that the
economy may be on the verge of a recovery, probably now discounting
a healthier economy to some extent. March Durable Goods up .3% was
the first improvement in this data since December. Also, new home
sales are showing signs of life. Meanwhile, the tech sector remains
quite soft with many areas of technology unlikely to report much
improvement for a few months. We figure bonds are entitled to a bit
more of a bounce, to correct the recent decline and to narrow the
gap a bit between the long and short ends of the yield curve. Fed
Funds futures have now priced in a 50% chance of another 50 basis
point cut in May, which is probably priced into T-Bills and notes,
but not bonds.
Steven Hochberg looks for a "one- to 2-week upward
correction" in the bond market. Adding that a more severe
decline from current levels is unlikely "until prices have a
chance to correct some of the recent slide."
Glenn Neely, likewise, is on a short-term buy signal in bonds. He
sees the current rebound as "wave-4 up of a terminal c-wave
down." He recommends exiting 1/2 of his position on a rebound
to 102.
WE REMAIN SHORT JUNE BONDS FROM 106-3/4. OUR STOP HAS BEEN
TIGHTENED TO 103-1/4, STILL LOCKING IN A DECENT PROFIT WHILE
REDUCING THE ODDS OF BEING STOPPED OUT. As suggested last week, our
best advice is to take partial profits into this decline at current
levels. But, officially, we want to give this position some room.
JUNE GOLD $262.60 (-$2.10): June gold has been treading water
until yesterday when it sold off. Gold is still having difficulty
managing a sustained advance.
Steven Hochberg notes that the recent series of higher highs and
higher lows "defines the near-term trend as up," but he
figures the larger trend remains down. Steven looks for resistance
from $268.00-$271.50, likely to put a lid on a further advance. Only
a close above $274.80, which he doesn't expect, would suggest that
this recovery may be for real.
Glenn Neely says "it is obvious the rally in April is
struggling (previous advances were larger and much faster). That
suggests the daily uptrend may be ending." While Glenn expects
another selloff, he will only sell short if June gold breaks
$257.00.
While we suspect that a short-term low may be near, HERE WE
REMAIN CONTENT TO STAND ASIDE.
MAY SILVER $4.39.70 (-$0.09.20): Silver, even more so than gold,
had begun a decent recovery, and again, more so than gold, broke
down yesterday. Steven Hochberg figured that silver could be headed
to resistance at $4.52-$4.58, toward the 38% retracement level of
the decline from the January 19 high ($4.92). Steven says "it
would still take a drop beneath last Wednesday's $4.32.50 low to
negate the near-term bullish potential and signal another leg down
is underway."
We are still waiting for a further pullback to establish a long
position with limited risk. WE WILL BUY MAY SILVER AT $4.33 RISKING
$.08 TO $4.25.
I'll be back Sunday.
H. Schiller
Released Thursday at 11:00 am eastern

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Futures Update

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Midmorning report - Thursday, March 29, 2001 - produced at 10:52
am eastern
Dow 9875 (+90) S&P 1170.00 (+10.50) ND M 1638.00 (+28.00)
A nice rebound has followed the early morning pullback, which,
not coincidentally, held at the lows (1151) of the March 20 FOMC
meeting session. WE CORRECTLY BOUGHT THE JUNE E-MINI AT 1153, 2-1/2
POINTS OFF TODAY'S LOW. That price of 1153 was available for 20
minutes after you received our report, so hopefully you had no
trouble making the trade. Fortunately, we gave this one our highest
rating. NOW THAT THE MARKET IS RUNNING, WE WANT TO GIVE OUR POSITION
SOME ROOM, BUT TIGHTEN THINGS UP FURTHER, LOCKING IN A BIT OF A
PROFIT. ACCORDINGLY, THE STOP IS NOW TIGHTENED IMMEDIATELY TO 1159,
LOCKING IN A 6-POINT PROFIT.
With the S&P approaching an area of short-term resistance,
you may be well advised to take partial profits (if you have
multiple contracts), or do some hedging. But we will give this thing
some room to run. Note that there is an unfilled gap that begins at
1176.50 and carries up to 1190.00 (Tuesday's close). If the S&P
can get into that gap, it's got a shot, maybe 1 in 4, of filling it.
OUR INSTRUCTIONS TO BUY THE NASDAQ 100 FUTURES ARE NOW CANCELLED.
NOTE: Our recommendations are always based and
"tracked" on prices of the S&P and not the E-mini.
Likewise, in trading the Mini-Nasdaq, our recommendations will be
based on the Nasdaq 100 rather than the Mini-Nasdaq.
Dow S: 9800 . . . 9725 . . . 9689
S&P S: 1161.00 . . . 1159.50 . . . 1156.00 . . . 1151.00
Dow R: 9882 . . . 9900 . . . 9960
S&P R: 1172.00 . . . 1176.50 (bottom of the gap) . . .
1180.00-1181.00 . . . 1190.00 (top of the gap)
H. Schiller
Released at 11:09 am eastern

Stocks Update - Thursday, March 29, 2001
Dow 9799 (+14) SPX 1447.95 (-5.34)
NDX 1563 (-39) RUSSELL 441.53 (-.67)
IN SEARCH OF SAFETY AND VALUE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER. Of course
we THOUGHT we were buying relative safety when we bought the drug
stocks early this month. And then the bottom dropped out of the DRG
Index. And, of course, we also had heard that there was safety to be
found in the high-profile Blue Chips making up the Dow. Of course,
we know what happened to the Dow. And before that, we were told that
even within TECHNOLOGY, the data storage area was a safe harbor. Of
course, before that, going back to last October, the epitome of
safety and predictable earnings growth was supposedly to be found in
TELECOMMUNICATIONS and NETWORKERS—a couple of market leaders—Nortel
and Cisco. I'm sure you get the idea. A sector, an index, or a stock
is "safe" until it gets hammered. Still there are degrees
of safety and ways to minimize one's exposure to risk. Certainly
(now the consensus view), one way to avoid some pretty serious air
pockets is by staying away from the TELECOMMUNICATIONS food chain
with all the inventory buildup and the collapse of everything from
cell phones to semiconductors. But, of course, now as we venture
into the safety of FOOD, BEVERAGES, and ENTERTAINMENT, we find such
household names as Disney, Coke, and McDonald's all breaking to new
52-week lows. Obviously, we've got to be very careful in picking our
stocks and our entry points. With the caveat above that a stock is
only safe until it warns, below are a few favorites which are still
showing decent relative strength and should be poised for a
significant recovery.
DRUGS – The DRUGS had gotten hammered recently, but have begun
to show signs of relative strength. The DRG Index cracked the
support of 400 several weeks back and quickly dropped another 15%—but
now are making something of a recovery.
PFE 39.99 (+.06): Traded back up to 41 today, which is where it
traded in October. Any stock that is back to October levels is well
ahead of most other stocks. Short-term support is 38, and the spot
to buy.
JNJ 88.38 (+2.10): JNJ sold off to the low 80s early this week on
news of its deal with Alza. This looks like an extreme over-reaction
which is now being reversed. A double-digit growth rate is
forecasted for next year with a revised P/E below 20. The stock is a
buy from 85-86.
TECHNOLOGY – With end-of-quarter fast approaching, plenty of
money managers are dumping Nasdaq stocks for their quarterly reports
to make it appear as if they never would have owned a stock like
Cisco, Nortel, EMC, JDSU, QCOM, INTC, etc., etc., etc. This has the
effect of making clients wonder how these funds lost so much of
their value without these core holdings, while, at the same time,
further depressing these already beaten-down issues. We suspect that
some kind of rebound is likely over the next few days, regardless of
the bigger-picture outlook for these stocks. Again, looking for
relative strength is the best bet.
EBAY 34-1/8 (-2): EBAY continues to hold above the December lows
while the rest of the Internet sector is collapsing around it. The
stock has good support at 32.
DELL 26-15/16 (+.50): Dell continues to make a series of higher
lows, forming a nice trendline off the mid-February low. 24 is
decent short-term support and appears to be a good spot to buy.
TELECOM – We have highlighted several stocks in this group
recently, and they continue to hold up relatively well.
NOK 24.16 (-.34): Our favorite in the wireless area with strong
fundamentals, i.e., increasing market share, and improving technical
action. We like the stock from 23-24.
QCOM 54-5/8 (-1/8): Though probably with more risk at current
levels than others in this group, I like the way the stock has been
holding the 50 support. And we continue to buy dips towards that
support.
WCOM 19-1/16 (+1/4): We continue to hold positions here, looking
for the support at 16 to hold and for the stock to trend higher.
Also, a nice uptrend is being established.
RETAILERS – Little new to report here, as this group continues
to exhibit good relative strength, maintaining a trading range with
an upward bias since October. We continue to recommend WMT, HD,
COST, KM, and JCP on dips.
CYCLICALS – Of course, we're finding out now that if a company
earns money, it's cyclical. But some stocks are more cyclical than
others.
MMM 102.80 (-2.03): Down from 120 recently, the stock has good
support at 100, which it hit today. We are buyers here looking for
the bounce.
DOW 31.63 (-.62): After originally recommending the stock in the
mid-20s last October/November, we reiterated our buy at the support
at 30 on March 15, noting "that's probably as good as it
gets." Last week's selloff took the stock briefly below
30--that level is still the spot to buy.
Obviously there are many more stocks that meet our criteria of
relative strength while reflecting some degree of value and, at
least for the moment, a measure of safety.
I'll be back Sunday with comments from our favorite stock
analysts . . . In the meantime, be careful.
H. Schiller
Released at 9:00 pm eastern
The Short-Term Consensus Hotline is a Registered Investment
Advisor in the State of California. Harry Schiller is a Registered
Representative and an Options Principal with the brokerage firm of
Winchester Investment Securities. Please be advised that Harry
Schiller or his clients frequently establish positions coincident
with recommendations made on this hotline. Neither Harry Schiller
nor the Short-Term Consensus Hotline guarantee the accuracy or
profitability of any recommendations made on this hotline. And, of
course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results.

Index Option Report - Friday, March 23, 2001 - Produced at
2:05 pm eastern
Dow 9451 (+62) S&P Futures 1142.00 (+22.50) NDX 1693 (-9)
The recovery off of yesterday's lows continues, a recovery which
we were hoping for, and anticipating. We, of course, used the
selloff to add more aggressively to our positions, particularly in
the OEX and the DJ Options. On a further rebound into resistance, it
would make sense to do some additional hedging of our bullish
positions.
OEX:
PUTS:
Still holding our bullish put spreads, which are now at
break-even levels for us. For now, we will continue to hold.
CALLS:
Here we really nailed it AS WE EASILY BOUGHT (2) OF THE OEB APRIL
570 CALLS AT 13.00 ABOUT HALF AN HOUR BEFORE THE MARKET BOTTOMED.
Today they have been as high as 28. Unfortunately, we jumped the gun
a bit hedging this position, AS WE SOLD SHORT (3) APRIL 590 CALLS (OEB
DR) AT 12.00. THESE CALLS ARE CURRENTLY TRADING AT 14.60. LET'S HOLD
THIS SPREAD, AS WELL AS OUR APRIL 600 CALLS. IN ADDITION, WE WILL
SELL SHORT (3) OEY APRIL 620 CALLS AT 5.00 (LAST PRICE) G.T.C.
Again, we are shorting these calls, primarily as a hedge against our
other bullish positions. If you are not currently long excess calls,
I wouldn't be selling short at current levels.
QQQs:
CALLS:
After taking profits in our short April 48 calls early Thursday,
I jumped the gun re-shorting these calls so quickly on the initial
bounce. WE EASILY SOLD SHORT THE (10) QQQ DVs AT .80, AFTER COVERING
THEM AT .50. IF WE CAN COVER THESE CALLS AGAIN AT .60 FOR A SMALL
PROFIT, LET'S DO SO G.T.C.
DJ OPTIONS:
Another bull's-eye here, though, unfortunately, we didn't buy
enough of these calls. WE PURCHASED (4) DJV APRIL 90 CALLS AT 4.30,
AND THEN WATCHED THEM COLLAPSE TO $3.00. THEN, ON THE RALLY, WE SOLD
SHORT (4) OF THE 92 CALLS DJV DNs AT THE SAME PRICE OF 4.30 FOR A
NO-COST RISK-FREE BULL SPREAD. NOTHING TO DO HERE BUT WAIT. If the
Dow is above 9200 at the April expiration, and we suspect it will
be, we will show an $800 profit (before commissions) on this spread.
EQUITY OPTIONS:
SMH 48.47 (+.26): Today we easily got our price to sell out our
SMH April 45 calls at 6.50 per our G.T.C. instructions from March
15. THIS RESULTED IN A $600 PROFIT BEFORE COMMISSIONS.
WMT 47.32 (+.41): LET'S REESTABLISH A POSITION HERE, THIS TIME IN
THE MAY 45 CALLS ON A FURTHER PULLBACK. LET'S BUY (4) WMT EIs AT
4.20 G.T.C. They have traded down to 3.70 earlier today.
HD 39.15 (-1.61): LET'S BUY (4) MAY 35 CALLS AT 6.00 (LAST PRICE)
G.T.C.
EBAY 36-1/2 (-1/8): The stock has traded up to 39 today and our
calls were nicely profitable. LET'S ATTEMPT TO SELL OUT OUR (4) MAY
35 CALLS AT 7.50 G.T.C.
QCOM 57-1/2 (+5/8): This one has been about 2 points higher
today. LET'S ATTEMPT TO TAKE PROFITS ON OUR MAY 50 CALLS AT 13.00
G.T.C.
Positions will follow.
H. Schiller
Released at 2:30 pm eastern

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