Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/30/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The final analysis on the $SPX chart is that it is still rising, with rising trend lines, and that means that it is still bullish. In the more traditional sense, there is support on the $SPX chart at 2210 and 2090.

The equity-only put-call charts remain on buy signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) has continued to decline without much interruption since the last buy signal in early December. It is still not all the way to the lowest levels on its chart, so it is not severely overbought. The weighted ratio, on the other hand, is overbought, as it has been bumping around at very low levels.

Market breadth has been the most skittish of the indicators, as always, because it can move swiftly and is thus subject to short-term market moves. Currently, both breadth oscillators are on sell signals, which they entered on December 28th.

The volatility indicators have been quite stubbornly bullish. Figure 4 shows two red horizontal lines; they are at 13.50 and 15 on the $VIX chart, roughly. As long as $VIX is below 15, stocks can continue to rise.

In summary, the indicators are mostly bullish. Of our traditional indicators, only breadth is on a sell signal, But we know that the charts of $SPX and $VIX are crucial -- especially $SPX -- and they remain in bullish modes for stocks. So at this point, we are taking some partial profits and setting or tightening trailing stops on long positions, but have not turned intermediate-term bearish.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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