Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/4/16

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market had been muddling its way through the Santa Claus rally period, and this now looks like it will put the final, negative touches on this seasonally important period.

At this time, the chart of $SPX is bearish, with lower highs and lower lows (see Figure 1). There is support near 2000, where $SPX appears to be headed for a retest very early in the new year.

Equity-only put-call ratios are split in their outlook at this time. The standard ratio is on a buy signal, while the weighted ratio is on a sell and continues to make new relative highs.

Market breadth oscillators are now back on sell signals. Breadth continues to be a technical problem for this market, as it has since July of 2014.

The entire volatility complex has been one of the most bullish indicators. As long as $VIX is below 19, stocks can continue to rise. However, a $VIX close above 19 would introduce the possibility that volatility is entering an uptrend, and that would be bearish for stocks. That could occur as early as today (Monday, January 4th).

In summary, $SPX remains in a downtrend, and that is the most important factor to consider. It appears that we are headed downward until oversold conditions build up again for another oversold rally. While those recent oversold rallies have been sharp, they have been short-lived, giving the bears heartburn and the bulls hope, but ultimately have not been worth a thing.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.