By Lawrence G. McMillan
There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market. $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside. There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day.
Market breadth has improved all week, and both breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they tentative enough that one solid down day could throw them back into sell signals.
Volatility indices and derivatives have remained in a very bullish state for a long time now. $VIX is dropping to new relative lows at the current time (see Figure 4). Of course, a low $VIX means that the market is "overbought." By itself, that isn't bearish, but if $VIX starts to rise, it can be a problem.
In summary, the indicators are generally bullish (put-call ratio, breadth, and $VIX), but $SPX needs to confirm with an upside breakout. That may be difficult to accomplish in a convincing fashion with overbought conditions beginning to take hold.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
© 2023 The Option Strategist | McMillan Analysis Corporation